It is of passing interest to those interested in karmic events that both Burma and China have experienced cataclysmic disasters within a week of each other. Does repression carry its own energy?

I’ve talked about Burma but for China this is becoming a very difficult year. It was supposed to be a huge celebration, the coming out party for the slightly post-communist leviathan and a party to show the world what an amazing country it was. Alas the Tibet demonstrations rained on that parade and now the earthquake has really taken away the focus. Indeed many Chinese were unhappy that the Olympic torch procession was carrying on as normal and this saw an immediate response by the authorities who scaled back the daily relay.

This shows that the Chinese government is very senstive to public feeling within China and is keen to always be on the right side of its citizens if not those who live outisde its borders. This sensitivity has been increasing over the last 10 years and with the Olympics putting China centre stage, the rallying call for a strong sense of nationhood has been blasted out from all points. From all accounts it seems to be working.

It’s nearly 20 years since the Tiananmen Square massacre. It holds memories for me because I was in Northern Pakistan at the time, coming to the end of nearly 2 years away backpacking and working during my OE from London, and getting ready to cross the Khunjerab Pass into Western China. The idea was to head across China and catch the Trans Siberian home. It didn’t happen. I was with my Kiwi girlfriend (now my wife!) and we met an English guy who had just crossed over from China and told us the news. We were completely cut off and had no idea what ws going on. This was from the days of getting your post from the GPO Poste Restante service. Oh for an internet cafe. It was clear then that it wasn’t a good idea to cross over so we abandoned that idea and headed back down.

China has come a long way in 20 years. Sure it still is pretty ruthless when it comes to repressing dissent or “dangerous groups” like Falun Gong. And yes it still executes a lot of criminals though they say that rate is falling. It has built an enormous economy with a massive trade surplus which has enabled it to move overseas to secure resources and assets. It is however still unsure of its rightful place in the world. It’s military continues to expand posing a threat to Taiwan as well as giving itself plenty of muscle in the worlds’ oceans historically the preserve of the US Navy and before that the Royal Navy.

2008 is a big year for China. How it handles it should give us some idea of how it will turn out in the years ahead. Can it open itself up and with that accept the good and the bad, the praise and the criticism or will it revert to control and repression. Let’s hope its the former.

Elites have always ruled the world even in open democracies. Sure this was expected in dictatorships regardless of political persuasion but in democracies? What happened to “government of the people, by the people, for the people”?

In his new book, “Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They are Making“, David Rothkopf explores the globalisation of the new elites, naming some 6000 players who basically run the whole show. From media to banking he lays out how close these people are and how they are shaping and making the world in their own images. The link between politicians and business is crystal clear. In some countries its hard to tell the difference with the US a great example of this.

If anyone felt the US financial authorities were in collusion with the banking system look no further. The current US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, is a former Goldman Sachs Chairman and Chief Executive. Rothkopf reveals the shennanigans that took place over the bail out of Bear Stearns. He tells how bank heads met over the weekend to hammer out a deal for Bear Stearns. Clearly the deal had to be done that weekend lest the market really fall apart on the Monday. This type of round table pow wow is becoming more and more common as the fragility of financial markets continues to be revealed.

On one hand this sounds good: we have capable people in government and business to take charge of managing a crisis. They all know each other and have worked with each other. They know the score.

But: are they not the same people who caused and are part of the crisis? Is there any chance we get to hear the truth of the matter? Do ordinary shareholders and citizens matter anymore?

Well there have always been plenty of stories about how the Fed operates and the murky manner in which its was founded.

But one thing is clear from this article and the activities of those in power. They run the show in a “we know best” style. The question all concerned people should have is whether power should be so concentrated and in the hands of so few.

I wonder what Lincoln would have made of it.

Another of nature’s incredible creations, the cyclone, has wreaked havoc on Burma with the loss of life expected to be upwards of 100,000. Living around the Bay of Bengal can be a dangerous business with Bangladesh a regular guest of tragedy and Thailand more recently with the Tsunami of 2004.

Numbers of this magnitude tend to overhwhelm causing a certain numbness to appear. 90,000 or 120,000, it’s a big number. But I don’t want to dwell on that aspect of the disaster but more on what this means for Burma.

A period of searching and mourning followed by rebuilding will take place, following a similar pattern to these events, but in what framework? The miltary junta, bunch of decrepid bovver boys, has no choice but to allow the world in as it has no hope of handling this on its own. Repression yes! reconstruction nah.

If ever a message was to be heeded this is it. The Saffron Revolution was just the beginning, creating a force of energy which some might say has manifested in this terrible way. It is surely no coincidence that just 2 days away is the proposed referendum on a new constitution. A referendum where you can vote but not against it.

It’s been interesting watching the warlord generals and how they look shellshocked and dazed as the cameras focus in on them. But more than anything they look very human. Sure they have plenty of vicious thugs to carry out their torture and murder but now they look weak as they are exposed to the world.

It’s time for the world to really put the hammer down on these dictators and try and bring about some kind of change. Just being able to live without fear of being carted off to prison or a labour camp would be a good start but this may be the point at which birth, although painful, can be given to a new Burma.

New Zealand joins its larger and more illustrious economies, the U.S. and the U.K., on the slippery slope with the release today of pretty poor employment numbers. 29,000 jobs lost is no small number for a small economy and with retail numbers looking very soft as well, the Reserve Bank will soon be reaching for the “cut” lever on its interest rate management dashboard.

Regardless of the credit crunch, employment really is the key to how the economy will fare. As long as people are employed then somehow they can get by and service their debts. Well mostly. But now this will see a deeper problem emerge and that is one where people simply cannot service mortgages or debt in any way.

This will reverberate throughout the whole economy. Added to this is a report out today showing house sales down 40% in the last quarter and 53% lower last month from the previous year.

Ouch.

The NZ government has announced a delay in implementing the proposed Emissions Trading Scheme. The 5 year pushback for the transport sector comes at a time when fuel prices are going through the roof and the government is concerned about the impact of further price rises on consumers.

Forgive me for wondering if that isn’t the whole point. First up it was the carbon charge which was dumped back in December 2005 and now the brand spanking new ETS which looked full of holes and now is barely recognisable as a piece of effective policy.

The main concern cited by “critics” is that higher costs may be passed onto consumers. Well the goal of the carbon charge and the ETS is to raise prices in order to lower demand. However, fuel prices are generally regarded as inelastic i.e. demand does not fall as prices rise, which consigns a price approach to the bin. Of course, there is some level of price at which demand will certainly fall. According the research it is when the price increase exceeds income rises i.e. the is the affordability as opposed to higher prices.

Or to put it more succinctly as long as money is available fuel will be purchased regardless fo the absolute price. So the supply of money is a major player in this equation. Now with the credit crunch bedding down money has become less available and so the impact of higher fuel prices is starting to kick in.

So given fuel prices have nearly doubled in the last 3 years, one would expect to have seen a huge fall off in fuel consumption. This has not been the case.

One can conclude that price measures will not reduce emissions and therefore any policy based on this approach is doomed to fail.

Why, you may ask, is no one clamouring for quotas to be implemented? The answer to that is very simple. It’s too hard.

So let’s keep pouring millions of $ into schemes that won’t do the job and keep the veneer of pretending to do something about climate change. They’d be better off spending the money on something important like child poverty and education.

Do you ever feel like life is an endless re-run of Star Wars? Maybe not but news comes that Thailand has floated the idea of a rice cartel along the lines if OPEC.

Not surprisingly the Phillipines, the world’s biggest importer of rice, expressed strong reservations saying almost 3 billion people are rice eaters and calling it inhumane. Oh dear.

One can see his point. But the rise in agricultural commodities is giving producers a great opportunity to flex their muscles for a change and they may see it as one to grasp, especially if they happen to be major importers of oil.

This type of proposal will have many importers worried especially if those imports include oil and rice. We know the impact that the formation of OPEC had on the world economy and coming at at time of global financial instability, this proposal can only add to the uncertainty.