Posts Tagged ‘banking’

June 13th, 2009

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Kiva: Game changer

Early in 2008 I commented on the shaping of a post-imperial world where the flow of investment funds, and coporate takeovers, was coming from the East to the West, with China, India, Russia and the Gulf States recycling $ reserves and new found wealth into weak and failing companies in the West.

The catastrophic implosion of the US financial system in the last year has merely emphasised this change in the balance of monetary might.

So when Kiva, that beacon of social entreprenuership, decided to offer loans in the US itself, there was a huge intake of breath. The US needs microloans??!!!

Of course it does. How do small businesses get funded? Normally by people taking out second mortgages, borrowing from friends or ramping up credit cards. In fact I’m told many businesses fund cashflows problems using personal credit cards. Why?

Because banks have a model where they lend on housing as collateral…oh yeah that worked well…not.

The old fashioned approach to banking (one my father was involved in for 42 years) was lending to small business people and supporting them through the ups and downs of the business cycle. Investing in people and creating relationships of trust.

I think we are headed back to this and it’s peer to peer lending that is making this happen. The web itself has allowed these bonds to be built, that’s what networks are after all. Lots and lots of micro connections. Isn’t that the amazing thing about the web? It’s so huge and vast yet it’s simply a conglomeration of molecules connected together.

I know I’ve been bagning on about this for ages but banking, like media, will be forced to change. The micro world is causing new networks to be created, new bonds to be formed and new efficiencies to be found.

Harnessing the power of the web is allowing this to happen.

Microfinance has shaken up the banking world. I enjoyed reading Matt Flannery’s piece on the Kiva story.

Microjustice will no doubt change the legal world in due course.

We already have microrelationships, micromedicine surely on the way.

And the biggest prize of all………..microgovernment.

The change is coming, the inexorable march of system reorganisation is humming away in the background. It’s not top down, it’s an unseen mass movement with no control function. A pure chaotic system in action, free to develop and receive feedbacks in real time.

Who would have thought a lender from Domenica would be funding a borrower in the US.

Yes times are changing.

May 29th, 2009

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How to Invest

People are always asking me where to put their money so I thought I would do a simple post about it. I should add this is simply my own opinion and you should really check with a financial advisor…………tongue firmly in cheek!

Let’s start with the obvious. There is no such thing as a risk free investment. Even sovereign bonds (those issued by governments) can turn into wallpaper….look at the US Treasury market now, the world’s safest place to park your cash. Ultimately it’s just an IOU, generally backed by commodities or in the case of the US by a fairly large military and lots of nuclear rockets.

Having got that out of the way the first question you need to ask yourself is why am I investing? Is it for regular income or the hope of generating a huge pile of cash for future income generation (retirement for example).

Let’s start with the income piece by looking at what is available:

- Cash deposits.

- Term deposits.

- Government bonds.

- Corporate bonds.

- Shares that pay dividends.

- Property.

Generally, as in all things, you pay for what you get. The main issue any investor should consider before making an investment is liquidity:

How quickly can I get my cash and what will I have to pay to get it?

As many investors found to their cost in recent years, liquidity is the single most important issue.

Which draws the question: is there a market for my investment?

In the case of cash that is not a problem (actually that’s not true but for the sake of this exercise we will pretend that cash is always available - see Northern Rock for further details).

Stocks can generally be sold on the spot and cash received quickly (of course stocks can be suspended at anytime which means you can’t trade it, well not on the exchange).

Bonds have a market you can trade on but liquidity can be an issue sometimes.

Property you can forget. That’s a highly illiquid asset.

Managed funds as we see all to often can be very hard to get out of and the fees can be severe. If the fund holds any kind of assets other than plain stocks then redemptions may force suspension of the fund (we’ve seen that).

Baring all that in mind cash seems like the best place to have your money if access is an issue and you are risk averse. Second up would be quoted shares with high liquidity (shares on the major index e.g. Telecom in NZ which pays a good dividend). Bonds would be next and then managed funds and property bringing up the rear.

Anything that offers these with a twist is to be avoided unless you’re a professional. Like guaranteed capital return plus 100% of the 5 year blah blah return on some index. Avoid. There are huge fees and margins built into what is a simple option structure.

I’m sorry but there’s no free lunch in the investment world. But it’s very easy to lose money or receive poor returns whilst paying out large fees and charges.

My advice is start with cash and spend some time learning about basic stocks and bonds. Believe me it is not difficult.

Armed with a little knowledge most people could construct a portfolio of cash, stocks and bonds in a few hours.

Also don’t be lulled into the idea that you are a long term investor and won’t be pulling down the cash for 20-30 years. Look at how fast the world is changing…….planning that far ahead may not actually make much sense.

As with most things in life, keeping it simple can pay off. Also spending a little time learning about investment can save you a lot of money as well as enabling yourself to take charge of your own financial destiny.

May 14th, 2009

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Community Currency Conference: Report

As I couldn’t attend this conference I made a contribution for 3 others to go instead. Here is their report on the event:

From India Whitehouse:

“I’d been moved to attend this event for a number of reasons. My passion is human relationships, understanding self and other and the ways in which we as humans can learn to live together in a way that is sustainable, respectful and congruent with our deepest values and real needs. Tuning into our real needs, caring for each other, and respecting our connectedness with the environment, each other, our differences and the possibility of how diverse and magical our world can be if we aim to live in this way is what motivates and greatly challenges me!

My interest in the economic crisis peaked when my partner and I attended a workshop on mutual credit systems by Christoph Hensch (if you are interested google Understanding Zero). This system takes away the middle man (or the banker) by enabling people to recognise that we have what we need without needing to rely on a third agent to take our money! This whole system is about the relationships between people. A person will either be in dedication to the community due to having consumed before giving or recognition having given to the community before consuming. The key is that each person needs to stay at zero (consuming and providing in equal measure) for the system to stay in balance. The system does however require a mature population who can provide and consume in equal measure. It also requires respect for the individual contributions that people can make and holds the potential for society to reassess some of the values that have got us into hot water (for example valuing money over relationships) and live more equally. What appealed to me most about this system is that relationships are central and the individual strengths of people are encouraged and valued enabling people to consider how they can provide and what they consume from a more empowered position.

After the workshop my partner explained to me how the economic system was unsustainable and depended on a growing economy. I fully understood for the first time that we cannot eat money. This realisation was viscerally moving and I realised at a gut level the urgency and necessity for change.

Having understood this concept and attended this workshop on the economy in which human relationships were the essential ingredients my interest was peaked. When my partner showed my the flier for the currencies conference I made the decision to go based on my experience at Christophe’s workshop, the conversation about money with my partner and an energy test (whereby I tune in to my body and sense my energy going up or down). This is a technique that I learned on an energy awareness training course (www.energyawareness.org) that is changing my life. I use it to make as many decisions about my life as I possibly can. The premise is that my body has the answers to all my current questions I just need to be quiet enough in my mind to tune in. When I refer to human need this is how I define it: a personal individual requirement based on that persons’ body awareness (determined by an energy test) that restores energy to their system (and thus life) rather than depleting it. On reflection this is a sustainable system of living, to make decisions that add life to life rather than deplete it. Another way of looking at it is making decisions that are resonant with your deepest values, core values, or values of your spirit. This way of life is more than just tuning into my needs but includes acceptance of every situation and person including myself, service, attention to the present, energy exercises, and harnessing energies in the world to empower me (other techniques!) and is certainly taking a lot of practise! It is about getting into the flow of my life by tuning into my body which is always showing me what I need. The more I follow its answers the more my life is opening and leading me in new and extraordinary directions that have a lot to do with the people I am meeting!

The community currencies weekend exemplifies this opening up and was an experience I feel blessed to have had.

I arrived at Wellington airport bright and early and had a great conversation with another woman who I was driving to the conference with. Flying is unsustainable to the mind but my need to go to the conference required the flight and I will be using what I learned in the conference to put back the energy I used in flying in other ways. Body energy testing often conflicts with the minds beliefs! We waited at the airport for 2 other friends (Christophe being one of them) and piled into the car. The atmosphere was one of expectancy and vitality. There was a definite buzz in the car and a sense that we were attending an event of significance. We chatted on the way up about community, relationships, meaning and human needs. A major question for me around the economic crisis has been what do humans really need to feel fulfilled? What really makes our lives meaningful? Viktor Frankl reports studies that indicate that woman respects most woman’s resolve in the face of adversity, ability to weather life’s storms with grace and dignity and choose ones attitude in any given set of circumstances, choose ones own way. When humans really dig deep for the answers to what they value, success and riches fall way down the list and it is our capacity for love, respect and the ability to rise above human suffering and grow beyond ourselves that we each honour most. Perhaps this crisis is giving us the opportunity to practise these aspects of humanity? For those who tend to be irresponsible their need might be to take more responsibility (if they develop the intent to see it is so), for those who take to give a little more, for those who give before themselves to put themselves first for a bit). I also have a sense that if we each as humans could transform the energies that limit us (e.g. self doubt and reality avoidance) and start doing the things we deeply love and need to do, (for some this might be art, others medicine,) the global crisis might gradually resolve itself as the illusory need for more would fade under the real need of creating and loving, the experience of being a small part of a greater whole and the true personal fulfilment that would ensue.

Anyway, back to the conference! We arrived on a bright sunny day to a welcoming pacifist community with undulating fields and a pond and a hilly forest behind it. People started to arrive and I became aware of my shyness. I tended to want to withdraw and meditate but my energy (tuning into my body again!) guided me to talk to others, so I did. One of the speakers mentioned that at these conferences often the best work gets done in the tea breaks and I heartily agree! I met some wonderful people and shared experiences about life, social networks and personal meanings that were magical. There were surprises and coincidences as a friend arrived who I’d met through e-mail months before (sharing a project I’d completed). I met a fellow Brit who brightened my weekend no end as we talked of relationships, life and had fun. I also met 2 people I felt greatly connected to (1 of whom is at uni in Christchurch). We spoke of family, following our hearts, and the destiny of each person to be guided by their true needs so that we start to flow as a society. The man I met spoke of a weekend he spent with friends that was based around a gift economy. Nothing is expected in return by the person serving another. He spoke of how well this economy worked, that things tended to get done, some people felt like making supper, others needed to sit and chat and then the roles would change. He spoke of how fulfilling it was to give with no expectation of anything in return. Imagine living in a society where money didn’t exist and we trusted enough to know that all our needs would be met because we knew deep down that we are all reflections of each other, and did to others as we would want done to ourselves!

We gathered on the first evening to introduce ourselves. The meeting began with a Maori welcoming chant that gave gratitude to the systems that had brought us together, the water ways, the mountains, and thanks to the creator. This Maori song encapsulated the energy of the event for me. It was realistic, presenting stark facts about the reality we faced but grateful for everything we had. I felt energised by the community feel of the event and the greeting and gratitude of the Maori chant was unifying. There was an atmosphere of fun but knowledge that we were there to work. This lack of separation between work and play (that it is all life and needs to be taken seriously in a light hearted way) is what I aspire to.

Introductions were unique and heart felt. An elderly member of the group reminded us in a comical way that we had faced similar economic strife before and a Maori woman spoke powerfully about her desire to take her learnings back to Maori communities and of the wisdom within the Maori traditions that white New Zealanders can learn from. An English man Marcus spoke when asked of the 2 ways in which New Zealand might change its ways of the opportunities that European settlers have not taken to respect Maori traditions and the transport system “it’s a @#$%ing mess”, this was met with uproarious laughter.

People spoke of their bartering systems and LETS systems (alternative currencies) and Thomas Greco (the key speaker was introduced) the uplifting tone of the event was set.

We arose early on Saturday morning to a muesli and yoghurt breakfast (the food was glorious), coffee and chats, and made our way to the first lecture. Thomas Greco spoke first about the unsustainability of the current economic system. The core of his speech centred around the fact that bankers lend money (that is not yet in circulation) relying on the fact that people will then earn the money and pay them back with interest. In essence people are creating the money and the bankers are taking money from the earnings of the people based on the trust between people and bankers. Bankers are the middle man. For me the whole conference illustrated that bankers are not needed in the way they are currently thought. If there were no interest rates and we exchanged goods and services for their intrinsic value the devaluation of money would not be an issue and the economic crisis resolve. But because of the massive distribution of wealth, those that perceive themselves to be at the top of the chain (earning lots) are not readily going to give up their “wealth” for the greater good. This talk sparked my interest because it is human values that are at the centre of this. As a society we tend to place great value on success and material riches and yet evidence show that depression and suicide rates are highest in the so called “richest” countries, e.g. the US. In order to enable people to more easily release notions that riches create happiness it seems we need as a human race to reflect on our deepest values, what really makes us shine. Thomas Greco raised the issue that money creates an agreed numeric value of the price of good and services. We face a dilemma about how we value goods if we do away with the money system. Having chatted with my friend Ivan about this, I realised that on a large scale this is an issue. However, within communities, Christoph and Dave (friends who set up the green dollar system in Christchurch) found that people easily come to mutual agreements about the value of goods and services. At a personal level we have the power, through our relationships and combination of skills to create a system that is independent from the current economic system. We do not need to do away with the current system but rather work in synchrony with it. I feel that if people are not so concerned about paying back huge mortgages, the freedom to choose how people spend their time creatively enlarges. For me money does not bring me happiness but rather the way I spend my time (which results in money). Success and money are a by product of my choice to engage my energy in a career, relationships and creative pursuits that nurture my soul. The most exciting part of the community currencies conference was that I sensed passion and heartfelt choices being enabled because people were taking power back from a system that we have all been slaves to. Money was less the objective in LETS systems and bartering systems. The relationships between people and the ways that we choose to spend our time seem to be of the essence in the alternative systems. This is the need which I think humans have been intending to meet for some time- the need for human connection and personally resonant creative pursuits.

Talks continued through out Saturday. Helen Dew presented a talk on printed money (alternative currency). The money was beautiful, and would not devalue due to being attached to goods and services of intrinsic value within the system. Bryan Innes talked of interest free currency. Deirdre Kent spoke of healthy money, healthy planet, clarifying that the economic system is widening the gap between the rich and the poor and valuing money over people. I fully resonate with this notion for when money is the prime pursuit the value of human life and relationship is overridden. For me the economic system is a reflection of this misplacement of values and a revision of our values paramount. The quote by Alice Walker “We cannot afford to close our hearts to even one child crying at this time” comes to mind. The way we treat our children and our human brothers and sisters is a reflection of the needs we are ignoring in our own selves. Peter Russell spoke of OOBIE (Out of Our Back Yards) the notion that we have what we need close to home and we need to share it! This was based on his experience of Karen Russell’s (his mother’s) bartering system started in the 80s recession and highlighted that we really can make this work by being creative and making use of what we have. The power of co-operatives highlighted that the banking system can work if we work in partnership with banks and have each others interests at heart (a great model for life!).

The current economic system reflects our misplaced values and unequal society. As Gandhi states “we need to be the change we want to see”. For me the most important path to a sustainable economy and future is to start acting in ways that are congruent with our deepest values and take things a step at a time. This is the journey of a life time. The conference refocused my intent. I am attending a sustainability course. My main aim is to continue in my life to follow my heart and invest my energy in being the change I want to see by transforming my personal stress burden (this is as moment to moment as accepting my life, not getting angry with my partner, transforming my judgemental thinking and relaxing into the flow and sometimes guiding others to do the same). I feel that if one by one we begin to respect difference, and transform our stresses into wisdom this crisis can be an opportunity to begin to live in ways that deep down we all dream of. The conference strengthened my resolve and clarified my deepest values about life being about relationship (including with myself). I was reminded that my own challenges: the difficulties I face in accepting myself, all those I meet and not succumbing to the forces in me that do not want me to grow keep me humble. It is easy to see the problem as being out there in others but we are all individually mini societies with similar conflicts, difficulties and dark and light forces. We are each responsible for changing ourselves in the ways we each need to, in fact those are the only changes we can make. The conference fuelled my strength to continue struggling to transform my stress, practise being the change I want to see and guiding others to do the same in my work- coming from the humble position of greatly struggling to be the change I want to see.

I am returning to this piece having attended an event called “Awakening the dreamer” last night. It was a look at the effects of using too many resources on nature, wildlife and humans. The core theme was about lack of respect for human life. Racism, gender inequality, and lack of respect for nature are rife. White privilege and “the right not to know” about poverty, abuse and the damage to our environment were addressed. The many unconscious assumptions we hold about who we are and the consequences of what we do are creating an unsustainable reality. On reflection, in order to truly value and respect human life my journey is to learn how to truly love and value those closest to me. In fact we receive what we each most need to learn, “life is bigger than all of us and will give us exactly the opportunities we need to grow” Stephen Kane. But “To reject them is an act of wilful blindness and hubris and will simply cause them to repeat until we finally understand that part of our lives” Stephen Kane. It can seem overwhelming and too much to consider the whole of humanity and is sometimes easier to give money to a charity than truly respect and value those closest to us. I continue to struggle with the tendency to react and judge in my closest relationships and will probably need to practise till my last breath being least harmful to those with whom I am in daily contact and closest to within my daily life. For it is in my closest relationships that my saboteurs and the energies within me that limit my potential to love are reflected. I need to pay close attention in order to practise true love!”

From Raven Gooding:

“The weekend before last I attended the Living Economies conference on complimentary currencies in Whanganui. I found the conference to be a vibrant and exciting event that taught me a lot about the problems with the current money system and the viable community alternatives that are up and running in Aotearoa New Zealand. The conference provided talks by a variety of different people that covered everything from the LETS trading scheme to time banking.

Of particular interest to me were the bartering schemes. Karen Russell of Australia talked about the Australian Barter Directory which was set up at the start of the last recession. For me this was one of the most inspiring ideas at the conference as it demonstrated a simple-ish yet highly effective way to establish an alternative to mainstream currencies. I say simple-ish because it was obvious that production of the book based directory every three months was time consuming and not as simple as it may at first seem!

We were also shown a video clip which showed the ways in which the community was interacting and trading skills, produce and crafts through this directory. I think this was the best way to show the success of the project as the community was interacting, communicating and getting to know each other. I can only imagine that this sort of community “development” has incalculable positive impacts on the general well being of those people involved.

In addition to this presentation, Peter Russell also talked about the OOOOBY network which has started up through the Ning social networking tool. OOOOBY which stands for “Out Of Our Own Back Yards” is an internet based site for gardeners and producers to network and make links that will facilitate the trade of home grown produce. This seemed an ingenious idea to me as it somewhat solves the problems that were associated with producing and distributing a paper directory while maintaining the spirit of the original barter exchange.

I think that all the alternatives that were presented at the conference are inspiring and will be influential in shaping our communities in the next few decades. I know I for one am more motivated than ever to set up a comparable bartering system where I live so that I can meet new people, learn new things and exchange my crafts!

Overall the main thing I got out of the conference was that these currencies are useful in counteracting the current financial situation but their impacts go far beyond creating another “currency”. The biggest impact that I saw was not about what was traded or how much was traded and exchanged but the way people became involved in their communities and how they became empowered to create the community that they wanted and needed”

From Anneleise Hall:

Over 100 people from all over New Zealand attended the recent three-day Community Currencies Conference held in Whanganui, where representatives from many local complementary currency initiatives shared their stories.

Organised by Living Economies, the national body to promote community currencies, the conference featured a full programme of speakers with a facilitated open-space segment on the last day for people to have deeper conversations about topics they were interested in.

It is heartening to see such a range of innovative local projects from around the country reflecting the needs of their communities. Through local currency and bartering systems we are able to create empowerment and resilience in communities by enabling the trading of goods and services without relying on the national money system.

As the central money system is crumbling, and Governments around the world pour billions of taxpayers money into trying to prop up what is essentially an unsustainable and unjust system, the grass-roots response is typically innovative, passionate and practical.

Special overseas guests were Tom Greco from the US, author of “The End of Money and the Future of Civilization”, who talked about why the current interest-focused money system is not sustainable and Noe Vincent Atutur from Vanuatu who spoke on indigenous shell currencies common in their islands.

Project Lyttelton chairwoman Margaret Jefferies presented on Lyttelton’s Time Bank which generated a lot of interest and enthusiasm.

Based on the work of Edgar S Cahn, Lyttelton has piloted New Zealand’s first TimeBank. Many communities are watching Lyttelton with interest.

The principle of TimeBank is very simple 1=1. That is one hour of your time is equal to an hour of another person’s time. Under NZ tax rules, members cannot trade skills they use for their paid employment, so it starts to get people thinking about what other skills they have to offer.

It may be a hobby, a passion or skills that help to make up the 40% of non-market economy work that holds our communities together, such as cooking, caring, raising children, working bees, listening or civic participation. It starts to shift thinking that we are defined by “what we do” or our ability to contribute to GDP.

TimeBank is more than just a trading system. It is a way of building relationships and trust and for people to have their needs met from within their community. It also encourages local production and enables people to benefit from non-market skills and talent.

Trades are recorded on special software and members are able to publish offers and requests. People are also connected through the TimeBank co-ordinator who helps people identify the skills they would like to share and what they would like help with, and explains the software.

Project Lyttelton is regularly doing presentations and answering enquiries from other communities interested in starting their own TimeBanks.

Local complementary currencies work well alongside the national system.

Particularly inspiring was a presentation by Hellen Swales from Upper Hutt who has developed a local XCard.

This is accepted by participating local retailers and works like a Fly Buys type initiative where people who use the card get bonus points that are credited and accumulate until they are able to exchange them for goods or services. It has revitalised the local economy by encouraging people to use local retailers and the data collected to date shows the scheme has been very successful.

One of the most rewarding things about the conference was the wonderful conversations and exchanges of ideas. People attending were really excited about the possibilities.

An exciting development was a system of creating interest free loans within a community, the Genuine Wealth System. In essence, it is a scheme where a group of like-minded people pool their savings into a holding account where the balance is used to provide interest free loans to members of the group. These loans can be used for anything from buying a car, retrofitting houses, to building a house.

The group prioritises who will do what when and the loan is made. The repayments consist of an agreed affordable amount which is made up of a portion of loan balance and an equivalent portion of compulsory savings which are then able to be loaned to someone else for the duration of the loan term. The compulsory savings may be withdrawn when the loan is repaid.

It really harnesses the power of working collectively.

I believe that while the global challenges facing us at this time are unprecedented, by working together collectively and creatively our capacity to meet and overcome them is infinite. This conference certainly reinforced that view.

COMMUNITY CURRENCIES CONFERENCE APRIL 17-18-19 2009, WANGANUI

The Goals of the conference:

1) to maximise public exposure to the concepts of Complementary Currencies and other economic instruments as a solution to the current financial and economic crisis

2) to offer a nurturing networking environment for people, initiatives, community groups and others who work on community-based solutions like Transition Towns (TT’s) and CC’s, etc. sharing ideas, energy and encouragement

3) to produce resource materials from the information shared at the conference, to be made available to the conference participants, political decision makers and the public at large

4) to explore new and/or emerging opportunities for complementary currencies and other economic instruments

An  exciting addition to the conference will be the attendance of high school and university students that people from some regions are sponsoring to attend.

Updates and additional Information about the conference will be circulated leading up to the event by email and on www.sustainablewhanganui.org.nz

May 14th, 2009

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Beyond Money: The Growth of Community Currency

Last month Tom Greco appeared as the keynote speaker at the national Community Currencies Conference in Wanganui. He is well known globally for his work on the topic of money. He described his attendance at the conference below

“The national Community Currencies Conference (April 17-19) brought together well over 100 enthusiastic participants who convened at the Quaker Settlement in Wanganui to share information and discuss new possibilities. My Keynote presentation delivered on Saturday morning (April 18) was titled, Reclaiming The Credit Commons: The Key to Sustainability and Relocalization. Prefaced with a brief outline of my vision of societal metamorphosis, I argued that liberating the exchange process from monopoly control by means of localization and popularization of credit is a necessary prerequisite to achieving a steady-state economy and the devolution of power to local communities”.

He also gave talks in Auckland entitled Money, Power, Democracy, and War: Finding the path toward global peace, harmony, and prosperity, on Waiheke Island entitled Community Economic Development: A Comprehensive and Innovative Approach and in Wellington entitledThe Political Money System: The Story of Central Banks, Inflation, and Legal Tender.

He was also interviewed by Kim Hill and that is available here

If anyone is interested in getting copies of those talks you can contact Tom through his website or blog.

I provided sponsorship for 3 people to attend the conference and they have written about their experience of the event in the following post.

May 8th, 2009

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Women to take over the Banking System

Great piece in the Herald looking at how things might or could have been different if women had been in charge of the financial system. Harriet Harman has floated the idea in the UK of appointing more women to the boards of banks in order to soften the the testosterone fuelled activities of the current lot.

The macho culture of traders has been studied of many occasions focusing primarily on testosterone. Of course this is a popular fall guy for any over the edge activity that men get themselves fired up on. But research shows this to be true.In fact some researchers go as far as to blame the credit crunch on over pumped up Gordon Gekkos.

There is no doubt that this type of beahviour has a strong causative effect on bubbles and general winning of big bets. It’s a natural high…..who hasn’t felt it when winning a bet at the races, or getting something right in a quiz or a great result in an exam.

The good news is that women are no so affected by these grand illusions preferring to focus on the basics like how much money is in the account and other boring details like that.

We’ve yet to read a bout a female “rogue trader” so maybe Harriet is onto something here. But I don’t think it’s an equality issue, it’s more about skills. Women have skills that we need to use in all areas and money is a pretty crucial one as everyone is now finding out.

Imagine banking for the people……the service of providing money. As opposed to banking…….punting huge amounts of cash in the global casino.

Something tells me they are onto something here. Let’s face it…women have run the household budgets forever…they are the true oikonomists.

More and more women are getting into the money business…….how about the ladies at Wokai? i really like their style and approach. As i have noticed before nearly 80% of my loans on Kiva have been to women. Maybe i figure they are more likley to knuckle down and pay it back :-)

I’m sure there are some great examples of women in this line of work or ones up and coming. I invite you all to nominate your favourites and let the bandwagon roll on.

January 3rd, 2009

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Soros: The Reflexive Market

Soros has been banging on about his new theory on why markets tend towards bubbles. Well it’s not a new theory as he’s been going on about it for a long time. In fact he’s made plenty of dough out of this approach for many years. But so has Warren Buffett so what’s the difference?

Well his mani point is that markets do not tend towards equilibrium but can be quite extreme in their pricing. I completely agree with this. But do they alwats revert to an equilibrium point? I think so but unfortunately for many it’s like an elastic band. It either rebounds on you causing a sharp pain or actually complete explodes.

This leads us to the greatest maxim of trading and investing: buy low, sell high.

The best traders are those who are completely detached from the instruments they trade. The ego is removed and there is no emotional investment about being right. But markets move on emotion of crowds since that is what the market is. The market can also be seen as a system in which intentionality is the main driver. Yes the fundamentals (price, yield, forecasts) play an important part in determining a basic price but it is the intention of the market, whether to buy or sell, that really drives the price.

So stock markets happily trade a twice their preceived fair value earnings. Currencies happily trade at a huge premium or discount to perceived fair value. Why does this happen? It’s simply the collective outcome of countless intentions.

And many fortunes have been lost betting against the wisdom of the crowd.

Soros suggests regulators have a part to play here in smoothing or preventing bubbles. He says that the control of the money supply itself is not enough but that credit conditions need to be managed. In essence this is the same thing depending on how you view the money supply.

He thinks margin and capital requirements for banks should be used to make credit less or more available.

He’s right to a point. But he missed the real problem which is the creation of the money supply by the banks.

Banks control both the money supply and the supply of credit . How? Well nearly all money is credit.

Now there’s something for Geroge to get his teeth into.

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I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking, I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. I write about the intersection of economic, social and environmental issues . My prime interest is in designing better systems to create a better world. I welcome comments and input.

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