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Currency Intervention: Kiwis don’t fly (Episode 2)

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

2 years seems a long time but feels like yesterday. In that period the NZ$ fell from 0.82 to 0.49 and now is back trading just below 0.68. Wow…talk about currency whiplash.

So back then I suggested the RBNZ should think about selling as much NZ$ as they could. Why? Why go against prevailing market sentiment which is that intervention doesn’t really work and simply provides a target for the speculating hordes which incidentally account for 95% of the volume of daily trades.

That’s a fair sentiment when your currency is falling but when it’s rising? And when you have an eye popping foreign debt of almost 140% of GDP……that’s foreign debt not overall debt.

And yet the punters keep buying the NZ$. Perhaps they know something I don’t. Maybe 50 years worth of oil has been discovered in the Southern Basin. Who knows?

The point is that at some point that money has to be paid back and at the moment, due to the sneaky monster that is compound interest, we can’t even get close to reducing it.

But now is the time to strike.

Again I would like to suggest that the RBNZ starts selling NZ$. When you have a lot of something to sell it’s always best to do it when others are keen to buy. Now is that chance.

By selling NZ$ now and paying back, or at least holding for that same purpose, it will take the pressure off the very precarious dependency we have on overseas lenders.

This doesn’t eliminate the debt but simply transfers it to a domestic situation where it can be managed at lower rates and where there is no threat of having to suddenly repay.

How can the RBNZ do this? Again this is very simple. Print NZ$ and buy US$. There is no change to the actual money supply just how the debt is denominated.

Considering the implosion Iceland experienced and the unfolding disaster that is Ireland (surviving only due to its membership of the Euro), it makes complete sense just to get on with this now.

To allow foreign debt to be run at such a level is financial mismanagement of the highest level.

It also shows a willingness to be dictated to and dependent on overseas interests. This makes no sense at all when the country’s economy security is at stake.

Tags: bollard, borrowing, credit crunch, currencies, debt, dollar, financial crisis, fx, Iceland, intervention, ireland, kiwis, money, new zealand, nz$, rbnz, reserve bank of new zealand, security | 3 Comments »

Intentional Money: Give, Lend or Buy

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

According to my colleague and friend, Branton Kenton-Dau , human beings are intentional devices. We are here for a purpose, a reason and our human form is a structure for expressing intention. I like that. Every time we act we are expressing something about ourselves even in the most nano way.

So when it comes to managing our money we are faced with the same questions: who am I and what is my intention?

It seems to me that we have 3 ways of using our money: Giving, Lending or Buying.

Giving is the simple act of directing one’s money to somone else with no expectation of financial return inclduing the original gift. But there is a clear intention that the gift should have some kind of impact. Simply this can be regarded as giving money to charity or a fundraising appeal. Your return is hopeful, that some positive outcome or impact will be achieved by way of your contribution. This is a powerful way of expressing your intention. Of course one can also give your time, goods and services for no financial return and this is a more hands on approach.

Lending, otherwise known as saving, is also a powerful tool. When you deposit your cash in the bank you are in effect lending to the bank. In legal terms you are an unsecured creditor of the bank. There is little intention here as we tend to see the process as the bank doing us a favour. But when it comes to peer to peer lending, microfinance or simply lending money directly to friends, the process takes on a deeper signifiance. There is a more direct energy involved and a desire to participate in an outcome. The personal connection to borrowers helps create this possibility. Another form of lending is to large business via corporate bonds. This is akin to saving in the bank except again there is a directness involved. A large business wants to raise $100m and I lend it $20,000. I’m a small piece of that but I’m essentialy helping to fund the business. But there is still some distance there as I’ve probably dealt through a boker or investment advisor. What I am keen to see is more peer to small business in developed countries. We’ve seen Kiva open up loans into the US now and soom we will see more acceptance in people lending larger sums to small businesses. Not so much microfinance as peer finance. What better way to create strong and trusted communities than people lending to businesses they buy from.

The third form of intentional money is the process of buying. This is two parts: buying for ownership in a business and buying for personal consumption. The latter is the world of ethical and values based purchasing. It’s a well developed market and I won’t got into that. But actually directing your money into businesses through ownership is another way to direct the flow of your financial intention. Whether it’s ethical investing at the macro level (buying into ethical funds) or at the micro level (investing in start ups that share your goals and values). The micro level is more interesting because the impact of your investment is greater. In the macro world of stock markets and large companies your investment is not so influential because of the way institutional investors control so much of the market.

We have many choices when it comes to dealing with our money. Each time we make a financial decision we have an opportunity to express our intention. Its a very powerful force. The more we align our choices with who we are, the more powerful our impact becomes. We become an efficient intentional system

As they say money talks.

Tags: borrowing, buying, ethics, finance, giving, intention, investing, lending, microfinance, money, peer to peer, systems, values, wholeness | 1 Comment »

New Zealand: Small Business crying out for Microfinance

Thursday, June 18th, 2009

Following on from the news about Kiva moving into the US small business market, fleet footed Ben Kepes calls us to action in New Zealand.

Small businesses in NZ have seen no relief from high interest rates in the recent lowering of rates here. At the same time credit is hard to come by and many business owners have resorted to credit cards to keep their businesses going.

This is a troublesome state of affairs given its the productive economy that has to earn the dollars to pay back the humungous debt necklace hanging around the necks of Kiwis.

So what’s the state of play with microfinance at the moment? Well Kiva is going great guns. It’s really tapped into people’s desire to help and be generous in giving but created this new joy of creating and empowering change for people. It connects people together and that personal touch pulls the punters in.

The more tradtional p2p lending services are not finding life so easy. Charis Palmer reports here on recent developments citing problems for Prosper in the US and some success for Zopa in the UK. Locally Peermint has fallen by the wayside, Nexx hasn’t really got going and Lending Hub has joined a busy Australian market.

So there’s no shortage of platforms but it’s proving harder than expected to deliver the business. But there seems to be no platform for small businesses to secure funding. This is certainly an opportunity as there is certainly a strong and established market on the borrowing side with appropriate forms of due diligence available.

The major stumbling block for p2p start ups has been compliance with various regulatory authorities. However there may be ways around this and with politicians supportive of the small business sector the time may have come for a serious attempt to create what would be a mini-corporate bond market funded by the retail investement market direct.

Now that sounds like a major step forward in building a more productive economy.

Tags: banking, borrowing, credit, economics, interest, kiva, lending, lending hub, loans, microfinance, money, new zealand, nexx, p2p, peer to business, peer to peer, propser, small business, zopa | 3 Comments »

Kiva: Game changer

Saturday, June 13th, 2009

Early in 2008 I commented on the shaping of a post-imperial world where the flow of investment funds, and coporate takeovers, was coming from the East to the West, with China, India, Russia and the Gulf States recycling $ reserves and new found wealth into weak and failing companies in the West.

The catastrophic implosion of the US financial system in the last year has merely emphasised this change in the balance of monetary might.

So when Kiva, that beacon of social entreprenuership, decided to offer loans in the US itself, there was a huge intake of breath. The US needs microloans??!!!

Of course it does. How do small businesses get funded? Normally by people taking out second mortgages, borrowing from friends or ramping up credit cards. In fact I’m told many businesses fund cashflows problems using personal credit cards. Why?

Because banks have a model where they lend on housing as collateral…oh yeah that worked well…not.

The old fashioned approach to banking (one my father was involved in for 42 years) was lending to small business people and supporting them through the ups and downs of the business cycle. Investing in people and creating relationships of trust.

I think we are headed back to this and it’s peer to peer lending that is making this happen. The web itself has allowed these bonds to be built, that’s what networks are after all. Lots and lots of micro connections. Isn’t that the amazing thing about the web? It’s so huge and vast yet it’s simply a conglomeration of molecules connected together.

I know I’ve been bagning on about this for ages but banking, like media, will be forced to change. The micro world is causing new networks to be created, new bonds to be formed and new efficiencies to be found.

Harnessing the power of the web is allowing this to happen.

Microfinance has shaken up the banking world. I enjoyed reading Matt Flannery’s piece on the Kiva story.

Microjustice will no doubt change the legal world in due course.

We already have microrelationships, micromedicine surely on the way.

And the biggest prize of all………..microgovernment.

The change is coming, the inexorable march of system reorganisation is humming away in the background. It’s not top down, it’s an unseen mass movement with no control function. A pure chaotic system in action, free to develop and receive feedbacks in real time.

Who would have thought a lender from Domenica would be funding a borrower in the US.

Yes times are changing.

Tags: banking, borrowing, change, connection, control, feedbacks, freedom, kiva, lending, matt flannery, microfinance, microgovernment, microjustice, money, relationships, systems, trust, web 2.0, web 3.0 | 1 Comment »

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    I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. In 1998 I decided to explore the underlying financial system in more detail and its impact on society. The results were startling! In 2000 I decided to leave banking and explore new opportunities. I helped start up Trucost, an environmental research company, exploring ways of placing a value on ecosystem services. In 2002 I moved with my family to Christchurch, New Zealand. Since then I have returned to University studying political science and helped start up another company, VortexDNA, which explores the science of human intention and its predictive abilities. I am an active Angel investor, mainly in clean tech and web 2.0, and also volunteer for local community organisations in the areas of finance and mentoring. I am always keen to make new connections and hear about new ideas. Contact me directly on raf AT sustento.org.nz

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