I came across this humdinger of a letter to Hillary Clinton at the Celsias site. Whilst it could be regarded as some kind of political stunt it does raise serious issues about the nature of our globalised food chain.

I have never been a fan of Monsanto and there despicable deeds have been well recorded. But as we have seen with the impact of biofuels, the whole food production process is changing and judging from the price increases not for the betterment of consumers. A new term has been coined: Agflation

In New Zealand we are seeing the benefits and costs of food price rises. Our diary farmers are raking it in but consumers are suffering. But consumers are taking action; they are eating less meat and dairy; they are reinstating the veggie patch and being more circumspect about their shopping habits.

This brings several benefits: healthwise less meat and dairy is generally good for you; growing your own veggies creates a sense of self-sufficiency, gets you in touch with nature and you get to eat really fresh food; there is a greater focus on food and what you eat with many people finding it cheaper to avoid processed food and make your own from scratch.

Isn’t that what many activists have been calling for for a long time? And the reason that this is happening? The price mechanism.

People respond to price signals. And when the respond they can be very smart about it. There’s a lesson in here for the bureaucrats and activists.

Let’s hope they find it

Well Christmas brought some quiet stability to the markets but the New Year has seen an immediate stampede for the exit. What is so interesting about the current economic malaise is that it’s very hard to analyze with any clarity. No one really knows what is going to happen because we’ve never had a crisis of this magnitude before.

We know the credit bubble has well and truly burst. We’ve seen it before with Japan but that was really a closed market and the response was non existent thus causing a 15 year depression. We have Central Banks who are very keen and swift to act but will their actions just make things worse. Henry Paulson today said a correction was inevitable given the price increases of the last 5 years.

Nice to know the guys running the country are on top of things….crickey! Can anyone explain what a stable economic system looks like. Clearly the current bunch of economic leaders haven’t got a clue.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that we are experiencing a 1929 type situation. I think he is spot on. The bailouts we’ve seen recently could well become more widespread. If that happens then quite clearly the stock markets will fall another 10%. The impact on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) will decide whether the global financial system collapses or not.

Immediate rate cuts will be forthcoming from the Fed, BOE and maybe even the ECB. All this nonsense about watching inflation needs to be ignored. Inflation will keep being a problem but its a diversion. 2 years out and land prices could be off by 30% or more.

Investing now is for the brave hearted, foolish and very wealthy following the maxim “The way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one”.

So the Fed arrived late at the party with a scything 50bp cut all round. But they left a cloud of uncertainty to block out the ray of sunshine.

Bernanke is not known for his pandering to the markets and inflation is still mentioned as a concern. So this move is part of the restoration of confidence in the US economy and global monetary system. The G7 central bankers and finance ministers will have been wired into each other this past month and since the Northern Rock meltdown probably on 24 hour call.

They all depend on each other now.

How the Asian central banks must be laughing given the dressing down they received during the 1998 crisis and how the G7 bankers and IMF threw the financial risk playbook at them.

So where does all this leave us. Well pretty much in the same place except we know that G7 will underwrite the financial system. This is good for big guys and bad for small ones (or foreigners!). Small guys can fail and be picked up for a song by the big fellas……nice bit of wealth transfer (anyone remember Long Term Capital or Barings?).

But fundamentally there is still pain to come. The fact that asset prices have been inflated way beyond realistic levels means at some point they must retreat and money must be destroyed as the money supply contracts.

No amount of paper shuffling can change that. Pumping out more money will help in the short term to keep institutions from falling over and the system functioning but it cannot prevent the inevitable.

The best we can hope for is a gentle downturn in asset prices. And of course lessons will be learnt….just like in 1794 and every 18 years since

The credit inspired boom of the last 15 years is now over. Markets are in severe dislocation and whilst underlying economies are very sound there is a serious problem in global banking liquidity.

On the good side we have record low unemployment and company profits are in good shape. But the driver of that has been consumption driven by an expanding money supply which has driven up asset prices and created a wave of paper wealth.

Interest rates have been hiked up to halt this boom. It’s too late. The record low rates in the US over the last 5 years created easy money that was too good to refuse. As rates were jacked up people realised they hadn’t done their sums properly.

Wave after wave of derivative offers, capital guaranteed notes and other “too good to be true” offers have come pouring forth. There is nothing so easy as making money out of money.

But mathematics will always intervene. Compound interest takes no prisoners in its tsunami like advance across personal and corporate balance sheets.

The central banks now have no option but to step in and sort this mess out. The risk of systemic crash is clearly a possibility now, not just in stock markets but banking systems.

Whether markets can recover from here is a moot point. They always do eventually whether its months or years.

If the consumer goes to sleep expect a recession plain and simple. It wont matter where you are or what you do.

The important point is that our financial systems need a serious revamp. The gross expansion of the global money supply, condoned by the global central banks, needs a full inquiry.

Nothing less will do.

For those not in New Zealand a lolly scramble comes at the end of the party when you throw heaps of sweets amongst the children and watch them go beserk. Of course once they have gorged themselves they fall in a heap as the sugar high follows by a big crash.

What we are seeing in the global markets is nothing short of a major fiasco. Banks wont lend to each other so the central banks have flooded the market with cash.

Come and get it they say. This is now starting to get silly.  They were at it again last night as well. When is it going to end?

Goldman Sachs came in with a $3bln bailout for a fund last night as well talking the deal up as a winner. Well of course there will always be distressed sellers in a credit crunch. We’ve seen it here in New Zealand with finance companies going bust with alarming regularity over the last couple of years.

The problem is that we haven’t even started to see the real pain. The real economy is quite strong globally as the spin offs from the asset price boom feeds through in consumption. But how long is that going to last. In New Zealand we are seeing housing activity level off and prices come off the top. Today we saw weak retail sales.

What I observe here is that many properties remain unsold as people will not take lower prices. This is not reflected in the data. Many properties are withdrawn unsold or just sit around in the hope some mug will pay up for them.

So at the moment we are in the distressed phase of the market sell down. People who have to sell must sell and we are starting to see that. The question is whether it slowly spirals out in the main market. We are clearly at a turning point in the economic cycle. Years of asset price increases, consumption driven higher on the back of that wealth effect, central banks with no control over the money supply, late to raise rates, now hammering rates rises home as prices peak, people locked in at high prices and high rates, wages and labour very tight………it’s a recipe for recession.

This is why the central bankers are still talking tough on inflation. They don’t want to start talking in worrying terms in case they “cause” a slowdown.

So expect the lolly scramble to continue.

But there will be a price to pay afterwards.

Local government rates go up followed by interest rates.

Energy prices go up followed by interest rates.

So people are made worse off by increases in prices for goods and services that they cannot easily deflect or cut back on. That’s hard.

But wait there’s more, like a boxer climbing off the floor after a big punch they are hit again even harder by interest rate rises.

And to cap it off it’s all their fault.

I must be missing something here.

The only result of this type of policy is a regular cycle of boom and bust with more and more people forced into bankruptcy for no good reason.

It could be argued that interest rates should be cut in this scenario so that people are not forced to seek higher wages to compensate.

The main concern in the inflation issue is asset and commodity prices. But really its asset prices that are the culprit. They have been driving the global economy for many years now, most notably since financial deregulation in the 80s.

Talk has surfaced recently of the Treasurer invoking a clause in the Reserve Bank Act to move the inflation target aside in order to focus on the exchange rate. Whilst this is a bit far fetched it is another symptom of the policy malaise NZ is facing.

The Reserve Bank Governor has made the same mistake many others have before him: not understand the role and process of bank credit.

It’s as simple as that.

Using an inflation target to manage an economy is like riding a bike with one eye closed. Eventually you have a write off.