The nineties seemed so easy in comparison…yes some financial disasters but they are part of the regular boom/busy cycle..but in general times were good and there was an air of stability. Y2K came and went and in all the excitement we had ourselves caught up in a huge stock market bubble…..the tech wreck….horribly followed by 9/11 and the start of a new era in US expansionary policy.

The last decade saw the financial system gutted from the inside out. That it is still standing is a testimony the the magic that one can weave with numbers. The spread of social media and the growth of the internet was nothing if astonishing. The ability to communicate 24/7 took many by surprise and for some completely took over their lives. The rise of Apple….and the iPod generation transformed music, computing and basically created a whole new industry in itself…mind you was it much different to the Walkman and its introduction? Yes Google, Apple, MySpace, Facebook, YouTube and Twitter brought the world of media, in all its forms, to a completely new level. But that’s what technology does…we’re just moving at an exponential rate.

China and the rest of the BRIC gang really came to the party. The US ended the decade on its knees…wrapped up in wars it cannot win, with a financial system in disarray and an economy on its knees. With Japan the first industrialized economy to fail and the US not far behind, the global shape of international relations has changed. Multi-polarity is an uncomfortable idea for many and how that works out will be a real test.

On that subject climate change continues to take center stage notwithstanding the inevitable failure of the Copenhagen talks. The records all show the noughties being the warmest on record but the small matter of fiddling numbers won’t have helped bolster the case of extreme action. When arguments hinge on tiny fractions any question on their veracity can have serious consequences. As a researcher in this area for sometime i must admit even i have become somewhat sanguine over the whole thing.

When I look back over the last decade and forward to the next, it seems as if the same themes will recur:

- Financialisation of Economies: Can we remove the yoke of derivative financial instruments from the real economy?

- Technology: Will social media enable the development of a networked based economy?

- Global Politics: Can we move to a multi-polar world without the necessity of the United Nations as a de facto world government?

- Climate change: How do we manage the change in our climate and the resulting shifts in population and its attendant baggage?

There’s plenty of hope in those questions for moving to a more sustainable world. But any one of those we get wrong could easily send us into a period of darkness. Let’s hope we don’t end up taking this road.

I will explore each topic in more detail over the next few weeks.

As I’ve discussed before there is a major shift underway in the way the global market is structured. Not just in terms of currencies but also trade and influence. The BRICs have a powerful case to make: 40% of global currency reserves and almost half the world’s population (though Russia’s population is declining, a somewhat serious issue).

There is a strong feeling that the US has acted recklessly overt he last 30 years in flooding the world with $ and creating huge imbalances which have caused such chaos in global markets. So whilst there is always plenty of posturing and grandstanding, especially from the Russians, there is a real case for the US to answer:

- Global trade imbalances.

- Cowboy capitalism.

- Turbo boosted monetary expansion.

- Instability in global financial markets.

It’s also interesting that the meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) was held at the same tim and the US was not invited even though it wanted to attend. There is a strong argument that there is no real alternative to the $ but that doesn’t excuse the facts. One dominant currency has not helped create a stable system. It has simply allowed to issuer to experience huge profits from seigniorage and wield extraordinary political and economic power.

And can we really take the rating agencies seriously? They are all US based organisations. Ultimately whether the $ loses influence or not depends on the alternatives. I still believe a commodity backed currency is a likely development, given the nations involved.

At the same time the development of local currencies will help create a more stable and complex system. For now though expect more talk about a $ alternative and expect it to be driven by the BRIC crew starting with the upcoming G8 summit in Italy.

As with all decent revolutions students are to the forefront and are certainly bearing the brunt of reprisals. And those reprisals will come thick and fast, hard and long, brutal and deadly. That’s just the way it is.

The Iranian authorities are somewhat stunned looking like they have been slapped by a wet fish.

“Where is my vote” people ask. Down the back of the sofa in Ahmadinejad’s office probably but the reality is that we don’t know that answer. But certainly the polling in advance of the election suggests the actual result might be rather different to the official one.

This is a big story and like Tiananmen it has captured the interest and hearts of many around the world. The connected generation has been pounding keyboards collating and disseminating information through social media with Twitter, especially, providing an outlet for up to the minute street reports.

Journalism schools will be setting 140 word max reports as part of their testing soon.

@persiankiwi has been a star with 24,000 hasitly assembled followers. Streaming news just took on new meaning. Instead of having the same story respooled and playing non-stop for 24 hours, we are getting a blow by blow account of what’s happening on the ground. It will be interesting to see how traditional media outlets can respond to this.

Given that most of them have been expelled they may not be much help. It suggests that any concerned citizen in any given country on any given day can provide a source of news. You just need a phone and away you go.

Imagine if we’d had mobile phones and Twitter in Tiananmen Sqaure. I wonder what difference it would have made to how China handled the situation.

What interests me most about this is that its an internal action. No regime change here…no hordes of US soldiers and targeted bombs..no neo-con fantasy of parachuted democracy. It’s the Iranian people trying to have their say. That is such a difference to its poor neighbours to the east and west who are mired in US inspired conflict.

In a way the outcome in Iran right now isn’t that important. It could end up really ugly or not. It’s hard to tell but the wheels have been set in motion. The world is watching and supportive of the process of peaceful demonstration.

There may be punishment, deaths, torture but realistically the authorities have limits in that area given the widespread dissent.

As Gandhi once said of British authorities trying to crack down on peaceful protest:

“But how many can be given such punishment? Try and calculate how much time it will take of Britishers to hang 300 million of persons”

Numbers of this magnitude tend to overhwhelm causing a certain numbness to appear. 90,000 or 120,000, it’s a big number. But I don’t want to dwell on that aspect of the disaster but more on what this means for Burma.

A period of searching and mourning followed by rebuilding will take place, following a similar pattern to these events, but in what framework? The miltary junta, bunch of decrepid bovver boys, has no choice but to allow the world in as it has no hope of handling this on its own. Repression yes! reconstruction nah.

If ever a message was to be heeded this is it. The Saffron Revolution was just the beginning, creating a force of energy which some might say has manifested in this terrible way. It is surely no coincidence that just 2 days away is the proposed referendum on a new constitution. A referendum where you can vote but not against it.

It’s been interesting watching the warlord generals and how they look shellshocked and dazed as the cameras focus in on them. But more than anything they look very human. Sure they have plenty of vicious thugs to carry out their torture and murder but now they look weak as they are exposed to the world.

It’s time for the world to really put the hammer down on these dictators and try and bring about some kind of change. Just being able to live without fear of being carted off to prison or a labour camp would be a good start but this may be the point at which birth, although painful, can be given to a new Burma.

How can anyone have any faith in a government which is so transparently incompetent. It’s good to read Simon Upton calling for the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment to take charge of the next report.

13: unlucky for some.

The Greens have come out with a story about a buried chapter in this report. They claim that Chapter 13 was pulled due to a very negative slant on the dairy industry. It pointed to dairy as the “largest cause of environmental decline” in New Zealand. Anyone who likes to swim in their local stream, river or lake could attest to that.

The dairy industry is also one of the biggest earners for the country. There you have it. New Zealand is no more immune to political lobbying than any other country except its pretty transparent. It’s hard to keep anything a secret here.

The Greens propose that this report come under the auspices of the Parliamentary Commissioner of the Environment rather than the government.

Yes to that!  The government simply cannot be trusted to be objective. Yes it’s a sad statement to make but that’s the way it is until we get a more distributed form of democracy and power.

If you can’t sleep then here is the link to the various reports.

It actually falls neatly into and out of most of the political spectrum. Where it diverges is on the issue of control. Politics is all about who is in control whether Blue, Red, Yellow or Green or any shade in between. Basic income is about giving everyone access to the financial commons and allowing them the just get on with it. It isn’t a social policy its an expression of freedom and a right.

It will be interesting to see how this debate develops but I’m glad to see it taking on a more formal conversation.

Added to that is a citizens income, disestablishment of welfare, better infrastructure and importantly a compulsory health insurance.

It will be interesting to discuss these issues further. I may invite Owen to expand on them here. The name is a bit of a mouthful but that can be worked on.

It’s a very good start though.

Alongside this is a new manifesto from top Pentagon, Nato and EU players, past and present. The premise is that a first up nuclear strike is a legitimate and warranted policy option. Their reasoning is that it will be impossible to control the proliferation of nuclear weaponry and that the best approach is to simply nuke those nations who might be a bit aggro with the odd nuclear warhead.

So that probably takes the Middle East, North Korea and other such spots off the tourist map for a while. Unfortunately this sounds like one of those crazy ideas that gets the green light. Time to re-watch “V for Vendetta” and “Children of Men”.

Brave New World and all that.

I guess the upside is that NZ property prices will hold up for some time.

In New Zealand we are still experiencing protests against the mass raid on people suspected of unlawful activities under the Supression of Terrorism Act. What constitutes terrorism on a domestic scale? And more to the point how far can the authorities go in their protective capacities?

This is not an easy question to answer. Intelligence services are meant to forewarn and forestall any action against the State. This will always lead to a presumption of guilt even though an act may not have been carried out. This leaves a bit of a vacuum in the traditional legal process of innocent until proven guilty.

The authorities are stuck in a tight spot here. Blamed for not preventing an attack and blamed for arresting innocent people.

For activists of a more moderate nature this presents potential pitfalls. How far can you go? Certainly for activists with a bent for civil non-violent disobedience this can put them squarely in the firing line.

It seems to me that New Zealand is better than most. At least the media, with their general liberal bias, have no problem in reporting openly what takes place. In the US this may not be so easy. There is considerable concern over the loss of civil liberties and privacy for even the average citizen.

There’s no easy answer. That’s why governance and participation in the democratic process is so important. As long as there are clear sanctions against governments and those in power, through the ballot box, and freedom to air grievances then there is a balance.

However, when fear takes over then there is a big problem. If this is really happening in the US then one can only hope for some change and for the issue to be aired openly in the electoral debate.

Fear and freedom have a lot in common. You cannot be free if you live in fear.  Whilst I think we are still fortunate in NZ in our openness we still need to keep an watchful eye.

Meanwhile be careful out there on the 5th November