Currency Intervention: Next on the Fed’s Agenda

With the Dow already 250 points off the recent bounce and the $ hitting new lows against the Yen, Sfr and Euro, the time has come for the Fed to look at the $. Today even the President was moved to make some comments about strong dollar policy and importing energy inflation through a weak dollar.

The problem the Fed has is that the $ could really collapse here. $Yen is current at 101.15, a 13 year low give or take. That was when I was actually quoting the currency pair myself. Actually it has been down at these levels a few times but briefly. For the Japanese this is not helpful at all with exporters penciling in 113 for 2008. But the psychological effect of the $ breaking 100 against the Yen and 1.00 against the Sfr may well bring some serious fallout. The $ may well be booted into oblivion by all those on currency pegs to the $ who are certainly wondering whether or not to abandon them.

The question is whether intervention would do any good. Well it might and that may be all that is needed. There isn’t any good news for the US right now but then again its been one way traffic for 6 months now and for most of the last few years for the $. Is there any good reason to see it lower other than a complete disengagement by the market of the $.

The knock on effect in all markets could send the whole US financial system over the edge. A quick 5% appreciation in the $ against the majors as well as Aus, Cad and Nz would certainly help take the edge off the current situation. It may not save the $ in the long run but it would buy some breathing space over the next few months.

Will they do it? Well if they don’t you’d better hold on to your hats as carry trades get unwound.