Global Recesson or Rebalancing?
February 24th, 2008With all the doom and gloom in the US right now it would be easy to fall back on the old maxim “when the us sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold”. Not so anymore. There is good reason to see a rebalancing of economic fortune and the shift is potentially seismic.
The BRIC crew are doing very well compared to their older relatives, the U.S, U.K and Europe. Yes they have all experienced a similar asset bubble in equities but for different reasons. They have huge upside potential. They also have a less developed banking system which may have saved them from the sub-prime fall out.
There is also the interesting move by the Iranian Oil Bourse to price in Iranian Rials rather than US $ and then to state that the Rouble may be the preferred currency. Sorry?
The Rouble…..surely some mistake. Once a fashionable wallpaper accessory and now a petro-currency. Politics aside it does make sense to have a range of currencies available at the global level. This will create tensions but also prevents one country having power over all others.
This is a real wake up call for the US. With their military stretched across the Middle East and their financial system in disarray, the US is in a precarious position. Like the playground bully who finally loses his power it is suddenly looking very frail.
Tags: bric, credit crunch, currencies, economics, G7, markets, oil
February 25th, 2008 at 1:28 am
“The Rouble…..surely some mistake� Think again!
Yes, the mystery concerning the Bourse remains complete.
Indeed, we do not know in which currency oil is being traded on the Bourse.
Some sources say it’s the Iranian rial.
But others say indeed it’s the Russian ruble. (1)
Hence the importance of this article which was published in Thursday’s International Herald Tribune-article.
Moscow deepens ties to Iran’s energy sector (2)
SNIP
DUBAI: As the United States warns the world away from business with Tehran, Moscow is deepening its ties to Iran’s energy sector, underscoring Russia’s differences with Washington over Iranian nuclear plans and Kosovo’s independence
What if it was gold
(which is no longer available in Fort Knox,
but is marked to market on a quarterly basis by the European Central Bank)?
Gold left last week for da moon! (and is still rising this Monday morning)
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
Another
6/29/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (3)
Here’s a 20 February article of the Iranian News Agency which says
that Iran’s Oil Exchange Market, which I suppose is not to be confused with the Iranian Oil Bourse, will be inaugurated on 27 February
and
that oil dealings on that Market will be based on euro or Iranian rial (4),
thus not based on ruble.
Still watching …
Ivo Cerckel
http://blogs.siliconindia.com/goldrupee/
ENDNOTES
(1)
Russian ruble could be used in oil trade deals in Iran - envoy
15:30 | 15/ 02/ 2008
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080215/99314908.html
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian ruble could be used as a payment instrument for deals on an Iranian oil exchange, the Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Moscow said on Friday.
“Possibly in the future, we’ll be able to use the ruble, Russia’s national currency, in our operations,” Gholamreza Ansari said, adding that the Islamic Republic was currently busy launching a new oil trade exchange.
The Islamic Republic’s oil minister, Gholam-Hossein Nozari, earlier said that Iran would launch on February 27 a commodities exchange for oil, petrochemicals and natural gas on the Persian Gulf island of Kish and that all financial settlements would be made in Iran’s national currency, the rial.
(2)
Moscow deepens ties to Iran’s energy sector
By Simon Webb and Amie Ferris-Rotman Reuters
Published: February 21, 2008
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/21/business/irangas.php
DUBAI: As the United States warns the world away from business with Tehran, Moscow is deepening its ties to Iran’s energy sector, underscoring Russia’s differences with Washington over Iranian nuclear plans and Kosovo’s independence
(3)
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another4.html
(4)
Russian expert says oil dealings in Iranian Oil Exchange Market soon
Moscow, Feb 20, IRNA
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-237/0802200909234811.htm
Head of Iran Contemporary Studies Center in Russia Rajab Safarov says in the coming months, Iran wants to privatize its oil companies, whose number is no more than 40, and start oil deals in Iran’s Oil Exchange Market.
Safarov told Moscow-based daily Vermianovesti that Iran’s Oil Exchange is a crucial body that is expected to leave a drastic impact on the world oil market.
He said in the market, oil dealings will be based on euro or Iranian rial.
+
Vermianovosti said Iran will inaugurate its Oil Exchange market on February 27.
It quoted Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari as saying the exchanges will be in rial and possibly euro and the Exchange will be located in Kish island in Persian Gulf.
February 25th, 2008 at 1:29 am
TRUTH AND THE HUMAN PSYCHE
What is it that prevents the human mind to acknowledge the Truth when it discerns/sees the Truth?
Truth is ad-equation between the thing and the intellect, said Thomas Aquinas. (1)
In Saudi Arabia, inflation is at quarter-century high because the country pegs its riyal to the weak US dollar. (2)
As a result of Bush’s pleas to Saudi Arabia for OPEC, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to lift its production ceiling
in order to bring down the price a oil which is now hovering at around 100 US dollar a barrel,
the Saudis seem to have adopted the “a friend in need is a pest†attitude. (3)
Why can’t observers conclude from this
that Saudi Arabia should de-peg the riyal from the US dollar
and
that OPEC should price its oil in another currency than the US dollar?
What is that prevents the mind from ad-equating itself to these facts?
Is it that, as Aristotle writes,
when human intelligence is confronted with the highest truths,
it is in the same situation as the bat who is dazzled by the light of the sun?
Ivo Cerckel
ivocerckel AT siquijor DOT ws
ENDNOTES
(1)
Conformity, con-FORM-ity, concerns only the form.
Ad-equation says that not only form,
but also the matter/substance/content/ousia of both the thing and the intellect must equalize.
(2)
Saudi inflation at quarter-century high
Dubai: Sat, 23 Feb 2008
http://www.tradearabia.com/NEWS/newsdetails.asp?Sn=ECO&artid=139116
SNIP
Saudi inflation hit 7 per cent in January, its highest level in more than a quarter century, as rents and food costs spurred price rises in the world’s largest oil exporter for a ninth straight month.
Saudi Arabia has been grappling with inflationary pressures as the economy, the largest in the Arab world, booms on a near five-fold rise in oil prices since 2002 and because it pegs its riyal to the weak US dollar, pushing up some import costs.
(3)
From The Sunday Times
February 24, 2008
Sun shines on some as storm clouds gather over US economy
American Account
Irwin Stelzer
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3422371.ece
SNIP
Most important of all, Opec, which accounts for about 40% of world output, refuses to lift its production ceiling, despite personal pleas to the Saudis from Bush. The Saudis seem to have adopted the “a friend in need is a pest†attitude. Opec fears an economic slowdown will cut into demand, and that the dollar will fall further, reducing the purchasing power its cartel members receive in return for their oil.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:40 am
Thank you Ivo for your comments.
Yes changes are afoot here and they look to be potentially earth shattering (hopefully not literally).
As the sun sets on the US empire the sun rises on another. Whose turn is it? The Bear or The Dragon….or will Mother India rise to claim her place? Or will it be a new triumvirate once old friends through the Cold War.
They have resources and they have people….a lot of people.
It’s hard to see why anyone would own $ at the moment and as you note Gold continues to be in heavy demand.
Shifts such as these are usually seismic in nature often accompanied by war . Let’s hope this is simply an economic adjustment.
February 26th, 2008 at 12:38 am
And guess what?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s second-largest city, that dropping the Gulf dollar peg would ease inflation. (1)
Hence,
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers are to meet on Saturday, March 5, to discuss continuing pegging their currencies to the dollar (2),
the next OPEC meeting being scheduled for Wednesday, March 5
ENDNOTES
(1)
Greenspan: Dropping Gulf Dollar Peg Would Ease Inflation
Monday, Feb. 25, 2008
JEDDAH/ABU DHABI
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/money/archives/articles/2008/2/25/085005.cfm
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday near-record Gulf Arab inflation would fall “significantly” were the oil producers to drop their dollar pegs, in contradiction to Saudi policy.
+
Saudi and UAE central bank chiefs spoke in favour on Monday of retaining dollar pegs, while QATAR’s prime minister advocated regional currency reform to avert possible unilateral revaluations designed to curb inflation.
(2)
GCC foreign ministers council to meet Saturday
http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=1074112
RIYADH, Feb 25 (KUNA) — The ministerial council of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers will hold their 106 meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, under QATAR’s chairmanship on Saturday March 1.
In a press statement on Monday, GCC Secretary-General Abdulrahman Al-Attiyah said this meeting held much significance as it will take place after the 28th GCC Leaders Summit in Doha which included announcing the establishment of the GCC’s common market.
While saying discussions will include regional and international developments, he added that the meeting’s sidelines will include a forum between GCC foreign ministers with their Yemenite counterpart as part of supporting development projects in Yemen. (end) ay.
ayh
February 26th, 2008 at 3:10 am
Russia quietly prepares to switch some oil trading from dollars to rubles
By Andrew E. Kramer
Published: February 25, 2008
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/…ness/place.php
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/…ace.php?page=2
SNIP from page 2
Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, said Monday that high inflation in Gulf states would fall “significantly” if the oil producers drop their dollar pegs, Reuters reported from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
The pegs restrict the ability of governments in the Gulf to fight inflation by forcing them to shadow U.S. monetary policy at a time when the Fed is cutting rates to ward off recession, while Gulf economies are surging on a near five-fold jump in oil prices since 2002. The central bank chiefs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates spoke Monday in favor of retaining dollar pegs, while Qatar’s prime minister advocated regional currency reform to avert possible unilateral revaluations designed to curb inflation