NZ economy on the skids

New Zealand joins its larger and more illustrious economies, the U.S. and the U.K., on the slippery slope with the release today of pretty poor employment numbers. 29,000 jobs lost is no small number for a small economy and with retail numbers looking very soft as well, the Reserve Bank will soon be reaching for the “cut” lever on its interest rate management dashboard.

Regardless of the credit crunch, employment really is the key to how the economy will fare. As long as people are employed then somehow they can get by and service their debts. Well mostly. But now this will see a deeper problem emerge and that is one where people simply cannot service mortgages or debt in any way.

This will reverberate throughout the whole economy. Added to this is a report out today showing house sales down 40% in the last quarter and 53% lower last month from the previous year.

Ouch.

NZ Emissions Trading Scheme in tatters

The NZ government has announced a delay in implementing the proposed Emissions Trading Scheme. The 5 year pushback for the transport sector comes at a time when fuel prices are going through the roof and the government is concerned about the impact of further price rises on consumers.

Forgive me for wondering if that isn’t the whole point. First up it was the carbon charge which was dumped back in December 2005 and now the brand spanking new ETS which looked full of holes and now is barely recognisable as a piece of effective policy.

The main concern cited by “critics” is that higher costs may be passed onto consumers. Well the goal of the carbon charge and the ETS is to raise prices in order to lower demand. However, fuel prices are generally regarded as inelastic i.e. demand does not fall as prices rise, which consigns a price approach to the bin. Of course, there is some level of price at which demand will certainly fall. According the research it is when the price increase exceeds income rises i.e. the is the affordability as opposed to higher prices.

Or to put it more succinctly as long as money is available fuel will be purchased regardless fo the absolute price. So the supply of money is a major player in this equation. Now with the credit crunch bedding down money has become less available and so the impact of higher fuel prices is starting to kick in.

So given fuel prices have nearly doubled in the last 3 years, one would expect to have seen a huge fall off in fuel consumption. This has not been the case.

One can conclude that price measures will not reduce emissions and therefore any policy based on this approach is doomed to fail.

Why, you may ask, is no one clamouring for quotas to be implemented? The answer to that is very simple. It’s too hard.

So let’s keep pouring millions of $ into schemes that won’t do the job and keep the veneer of pretending to do something about climate change. They’d be better off spending the money on something important like child poverty and education.

Begun the trade wars have

Do you ever feel like life is an endless re-run of Star Wars? Maybe not but news comes that Thailand has floated the idea of a rice cartel along the lines if OPEC.

Not surprisingly the Phillipines, the world’s biggest importer of rice, expressed strong reservations saying almost 3 billion people are rice eaters and calling it inhumane. Oh dear.

One can see his point. But the rise in agricultural commodities is giving producers a great opportunity to flex their muscles for a change and they may see it as one to grasp, especially if they happen to be major importers of oil.

This type of proposal will have many importers worried especially if those imports include oil and rice. We know the impact that the formation of OPEC had on the world economy and coming at at time of global financial instability, this proposal can only add to the uncertainty.

Microplace: Securitised Microfinance

Somehow I haven’t heard about Microplace but it’s an exciting addition the the expanding world of P2P lending and microfinance. It is different to Kiva because you invest in a security (like a bond) for a fixed term, usually 2-4 years and you receive a return, although minimal 1.5-3%. As I understand it the big issue is getting registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Microplace is backed by eBay which certainly helped whereas Kiva was a start up and was forced into going the non-profit route.

It’s great to have two companies to compare and contrast.

Kiva is more personal. I choose who I want to lend to and can received feedback and updated information on how the borrower is getting on. This is really important as it builds a web of social capital.

With Microplace you are buying a package of loans and so you don’t have that personal contact. Also there is the issue of return. I think it’s good you can get a return on your loan as long as it does not influence the rate being paid by the eventual borrower.

So you could actually lend to the same borrower through either Kiva or Microplace but somehow Microplace can get you a small return on your money. I’ll be digging further to see how they do this.  So far they have been very helpful and open.

In a way the securitisation approach is not much different from mortgage backed securities where people invest in a package of mortgages. Of course we all know what’s happened with those. However i would stress this is completely different in that all the loans are unsecured anyway. It’s also important to note that default rates on microfinance are a mere 1-3%.

When we cut out the banks and go direct we enable relationships of trust to be built. This allows the traditional aspects of social relationships to take place. No one cares if you default to the bank but to default to other people can bring personal shame and other social fallout.

These 2 companies are blazing a trail for the rest of the finance industry. P2P finance could well be the next big thing.

Japan moves to counter health costs

At the beginning of the April Japan came out with a new framework for monitoring the health of its citizens over 40. Otherwise know as a “flab check” it puts health insurance companies on notice to improve the physical welfare of its customers. You wouldn’t think Japan has a serious problem here but clearly the government does.

The analysis of the regulations shows an upward trend for obesity and metabolic syndrome with the accompanying costs. Japan already has a monster pension bill looming and health is just another area marked for a major budgetary blowout.

Health and nutrition are issues that governments have started to become very involved in. This leads us to the question of how far should governments go in their desire for us to have a healthy life. I would say not too far actually.

More and more the government is taking on people’s personal issues. This approach by the Japanese sets a dangerous precedent. It is against the law to hit your children but it isn’t against the law to be overweight or obese. Should the government attempt to intervene or leave it to the market?

By the market I mean the price mechanism as well as social incentives. The price mechanism can regulate food to some extent and also body mass (more expensive seats for larger people). Carrying a lot of extra weight can hurt in the pocket not just in the heart. Socially it can be difficult also with discrimination and exclusion from others.

The answer is not clear. Clearly something has to be done but are we prepared to do the hard yards (better diet and proper exercise) or wil lwe rely on the government to bail us out.

It will be interesting to see how this policy develops.

Site down but now back up

Some of you may have noticed the site was down (thanks James) due to the thousands of visitors causing my bandwidth to be exceeded. This was news to me. I had no idea there was a limit on traffic from visitors but there you go. So we are all back up and ready to roll.

At least I know people are reading this stuff