Silence is Golden

I’m off on a silent retreat for 3 days. How good does that sound?

No phones, computers or talking. Bliss!

So Happy Easter to all.

The American Monetary Reform Act

With the financial system gutted and exposed like big swordfish from the Grand Banks, it’s time to have a look at a proposal for monetary reform. Stephen Zarlenga from the American Monetary Institute has put together a proposal that rests on the US constitution no less.

As many people are starting to learn, the 1913 Federal Reserve Act “effectively ceded the sovereign power to create money delegated to Congress by the Constitution to the private financial industry”. It was led by none other than JP Morgan himself. There is some interesting history of how the Act was actually passed during the small hours of the morning whilst no one was looking.

As Jim Rogers suggested yesterday, the Fed could be abolished or as Stephen proposes, be purely a bank of issue, supplying money as required by the government.

Now there are many ways to approach the issue of interest free money into an economy but for now I would just like people to read through the proposal and see what they think. Pass it to friends, schools and universities. People should be discussing this openly.

The AMI hold talks around the US all year round so get in touch and find out when they are coming your way.

Its your Congress and its your money.

Socialism for the Rich

Thanks to Christoph for this story. Jim Rogers has been on the wires lambasting the Fed for pumping out cash left, right and center. He has called the bailing out of investment bank Bear Stearns as “socialism for the rich“.

I like that. He calls for the Fed to be abolished. Now we’re talking.

Let’s face it, market rally or not, the $ is still in serious trouble and banks are still going to be under severe pressure. Watch for the lawsuits to come flying out now. Charles Schwab is being sued for “untrue” statements regarding the diversification of certain funds. We are going to see this more and more as people start to take a closer look at the way investment products have been sold.

You could say this is an outcome of an asset bubble bursting. People rush round looking for someone to blame when they lose all their money. “Caveat Emptor”  is conveniently forgotten and another investment generation is left to learn the lessons that previous ones failed to pass on or more likely were ignored in their attempt to do so.

How do people feel out there? I know 95% of my readers are from the US so maybe you have had some first hand experience you would like to share.

Fed cuts 75 bps: Is it enough?

Fed just cut the fed funds and discount rate by 75bps voting 8-2. The 2 against were for less aggressive cuts.

Overall the market wanted a bit more but still rallied initially. Better than expected numbers from Goldman Sachs and Lehmans helped with overall confidence

So what now? Well it’s hard to say. I don’t think much has changed and its hard to justify a big market rally from here. So the best to hope for is some stability from here.

I think the focus will now shift back to the banking sector and who is next up for refunding.

As for the market I expect that to come under further pressure.

Helicopter Ben readies for drastic action

After a chaotic few days the market has calmed as it awaits the next round of soothing medicine from the Fed. 100bps is expected now and anything less could see a major sell 0ff. So perhaps its time to recap on what’s happened:

- Global expansion of the money supply by the banking system abetted by loose regulation.

- Financial assets treated as investments.

- Trading on a leverage basis whether in the markets or in property.

- Reliance on capital gain to pay off debts.

- Creation of an asset bubble in property and stocks.

- New financial products promising spectacular gains.

A quick recap:

- Asset prices can go no higher as the mathematics of compound interest and cashflow catches up.

- The first domino falls as the sub-prime market starts to fall.

- Property finally turns and heads south in the US.

- Debts over run equity in houses.

- Spirals into derivative products causing a more widespread reaction.

- First reaction from Fed.

- Banks start to revalue (mark to market) loans.

- First run on a bank: Northern Rock fails.

- UK nationalises Northern Rock.

- General deleveraging starts as contagion spreads.

- Banks review lending and fringe financing companies fail.

- Rogue traders appear.

- Central banks provide copious amounts of liquidity.

- Fed cuts rates heavily and provides open lending to all.

- $ collapses and commodities explode as safe haven.

- Second run on an investment bank: Bear Stearns fails.

- Fed sort of nationalises Bear Stearns but gives it to JP Morgan under guarantee.

- Financial system on the verge of complete collapse.

So what now?

Well the Fed has studied the 1930s depression very carefully and realises that systemic bank failure is simply not an option. Yes shareholders will lose most of their money but that’s the risk with equity. The lines of credit and liquidity must be kept open and depositors must be kept afloat. If necessary banks in trouble will be taken over or have to merge.

It’s safe to say they will do whatever it takes, regardless of the cost. The clean up can come later but for now this is mainly about preserving confidence in the system.

How it pans out is impossible to predict but i wouldn’t want to own any banking stocks.

Markets Routed as Fed tries to hose down Fire

So JPMorgan picks up Bear Stearns for $2…..yes $2…not $20 as on Friday. The fed cuts the discount rate 0.25% which actually is neither here nor there.

The markets rallied initially on some short covering but the market is now in full blown meltdown.

Even Goldman Sachs has reported a write down. Only $3bln which is chump change for them but it shows how this contagion is spreading far and wide.

This is like a game of dominoes now and the central bankers globally need to pull every trick out of the bag to prevent a complete collapse in global banking stocks and general equities.

I would imagine there will be some concerted intervention either in currency markets or in the interest rate markets. This isn’t just a US problem because it will start spreading soon.

This is a very serious situation.