RBNZ: Have They Lost the Plot?

There has been a lot of hand wringing over the recent Reserve Bank’s intervention in the currency market. So what’s the story here?

Well the RB has a clear mandate to keep inflation, as measured by the CPI, between 1-3% on an annual basis. According to them they also say that,

“The Bank is required to ensure that, throughout the economy, money works as well as possible as a mechanism for making transactions, storing value, and keeping account.”

So let’s say they are also responsible for price stability in a general sense i.e. no serious asset bubbles or major deflationary shocks.

So how are they doing?

Since 1998 the CPI has risen 20.7% to December 2006. So an average of 2.5% per annum which is within the prescribed band.

But the key worry, or so they keep repeating, has been the housing market which in the same period has risen 143%.

So what have they done about it?

From Mar 04 to Dec 06 they raised interest rates by 2%, from 5.25% to 7.25%. That doesn’t sound like a great deal by historical standards and clearly has not had any impact.

From Mar 04 to Mar 05 rates went up 1.5% as inflation took off towards 3%. However, they stopped when they should have kept going. When CPI hit 3.4% and stayed above, the bank should have got really serious and jacked rates up very quickly.

They didn’t. CPI was above 3% from Sep 2005 to Sep 2006 and they moved only 50bp. This was their big mistake. With house prices on the march as well they should have had rates up to 8% by June 06. They are a year behind the curve and that could cause some major problems.

Alan Bollard has been soft in his approach and this may well stem from the false comfort that low global rates has brought. The great inflation crush of the late 1990s has seen global rates fall into ranges not seen for many a year. Central bankers have been playing in a very small range and have been lulled into a false sense of security.

All around us we witness the asset price bubble caused by cheap global credit. The Japanese are still at it pumping out cheap yen that no one really wants. This is a major disaster waiting to happen. We’ve seen it before when USD/JPY fell to 79.65 back in 1995 on the back of US trade concerns and Asian Central banks dumping their US$. For now the flow out of the yen and into the kiwi continues with a rise of over 15% in the last 6 months.

Yesterday Winston Peters called for an amendment to the Reserve Bank Act asking that the Reserve Bank take a more rounded approach to managing monetary policy. I have to agree with him that a major review is needed and that simply using the OCR to control the economy is not working.

Submissions for the inquiry into a future monetary policy framework close on 19th July. I will post my submission up here in due course. It’s a great opportunity to throw open the arcane nature of our monetary system and make proposals that may lead to a more productive and stable economic system.

The Nature of Money

In a previous post Does Money Grow on Trees? I looked at how money comes into existence, but in a broad sense of the word.

In his paper, The Nature of Money, John Kutyn examines in detail what money is starting from the late 16th century. He explores the development of what we know as bank notes from their early days as accommodation bills and the establishment of the Bank of England as a way of funding a war against France.

He follows the development of money and banking primarily through the legal process andlooks at numerous cases in law of challenges to the meaning of money and the transactions it is used for.

He challenges the banking system to show that it is not acting fraudulently in law when it uses deposits as money and actually creates money via new loans. Of course only a Reserve Bank can create money or so the law states. So is true? Well i suggest you read his paper and draw your own conclusions but he makes a compelling case.

Not content with that he then moves on to looking at the economic impacts of the current system which has a built in imperative for growth resulting in continued boom bust cycles. He argues that this is down to the interest burden and that debt free money is the only way a stable economy can be achieved.

As we approach yet another global bust and possible depression it is worth relfecting on the themes in this paper.

Money doesn’t grow on trees or so they say

They also say that money makes the world go round…well metaphorically it does. It oils the wheels of commerce and enables us to transact with each other and exchange our goods and services.

But how does money actually grow? There always seems to be more of it around. Who creates it?

You probably assume your local central bank does because only they can print notes and coins. That much is true but that’s only a bit of the story. Currently only 2-3% of the total money supply is created in the form of notes and coins that we keep in our wallets and purses.

The rest? Well as JK Galbriath noted the way in which most money is created is “so simple that the mind is repelled”. The private banking system simply create the balance of new money by issuing new loans.

That’s it. For those of you who thought banks lent out money you have deposited with them i’m sorry to inform you that this is not the case.

If you deposit $1000 in the bank, they now have the ability to lend out (and in the process create new money) up to $10000. Of course they charge interest on that loan which is where they make their huge profits from.

I’ll give you an example:

In New Zealand the money supply has increased 101% in the last 8 years. So the total money stock has more than doubled in 8 years!! In that time house prices have risen 143%.

But the official measure of inflation has only risen 20%. Hello…..what is going on here? Yes it is a complete mess.

It is not the central bank or government printing money and causing huge (but unmeasured inflation). It’s the private banks who are doing it! The ones who scream and shout if governments ever think about reclaiming their right to issue money interest free on behalf of their citizens.

It is one of the greatest swindles of in history.

It requires that people sit up, take notice and look hard at what is happening around them. In the US especially the system is starting to creak…..look at the housing market and the lenders that operate in it.

Please see the following sites for more information. Once you learn about this life will never be the same

US: www.monetary.org

UK: www.monetaryreformparty.org.uk

Can: www.comer.org

Aus: www.peoplesbankparty.org

As my old history teacher said read, learn and inwardly digest.

Sustainability - Where do we start?

Sustainability - what is it?

Sustainability is a much maligned word “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Well that’s a tad harsh but the word has been dragged through the mud from the early days of “sustainable development” to the “four pillars” namely enviornment, economy, social and cultural.

Reductionism rules!

You could argue that we have a sustainable society already because we are still here…6 billion of us. That’s not a bad effort considering we started off with just two .

But when we look back at our history we see clearly the duality of our existence: misery, bloodshed, violence and despicable acts; and amazing creation, beauty, love and art. It;s hard to argue that much has changed in the last 10,000 years at least.

So where to? Can we ever become whole or will we always be engaged in a battle between the dark and light forces in our amazing universe.

I believe sustainability as a metaframework not an end in itself. It allows us to ask ourselves “what kind of society do we wish to live in?’…..if we can define that then all the other stuff will follow. The problem we have know is we start with the reduced view whether it is the environment or social issues or economic growth.

Then when it all ends in conflict we wonder why.

So where do start? Well there’s the ten commandments magna carta, uk bill of rights moving along to more modern frameworks such as the US constitution and one i quite like is the UN Declaration of Human Rights which came into being on 10 December 1948.

This was ratified by all then 58 member states which was no mean feat. The committee which prepared the initial text was chaired by Eleanor Roosevelt herself. You can view it here

Article 25 and 26 are of particular interest being on the issue of education and well being.

It’s well worth a read.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US consitution notes:

Congress has the power “to coin money, regulate the value thereof”……….it doesnt say banks have that power mind you.

Coming back the the topic at hand: how do we craft a society that sustains itself without the externalisation of environmental, social, cultural and economic costs.

- Eliminating poverty (Article 25 of the UNDHR).
- Compulsory free education to 16 for all (Article 26 of the UNDHR).
- Life, Liberty and Security of Person (Article 3 of the UNDHR)
- Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness (US Declaration of Independence)

I could go on.

What is it that we want? We dont want our prisons overflowing with societal detritus. We therefore must ensure at all costs all children we bring into this world are well looked after with resources to ensure that is the case. Decent fresh food not the fossil fuel sugar laden processed rubbish churned out my the corporatised supermarkets. No wonder so many children are going round the bend…we’re poisoning them.

Safe, secure and healthy homes are vital for our children. Well resourced educational facilities are next on the list alongside decent parks and safe public spaces. Ripping poverty and its bedfellows out of our society has to start now with major expenditure….the kind normally reserved for invading other nations and killing machines.

If anyone argues “show me the money”…well it’s right there in front of you. There always has been and continues to be a huge transfer of wealth from the state to the private financial sector. It’s fact: in the UK the sum has been estimated at GBP20-40bln a year. In the US i imagine it will be a more significant sum.

Underlying all this is the question of who owns the money supply, where does the power lie.

If we dont have an idea of what we’re aiming for we will most certainly miss the target. We know we already have as levels of happiness and well being have been static for decades (sorry GDP is not going to help).

If we focus on building strong roots then sustainability will come. Right now no amount of fiddling will help. As the Declaration of Independence noted,

“whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter it or abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organising its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness”.