Another of nature’s incredible creations, the cyclone, has wreaked havoc on Burma with the loss of life expected to be upwards of 100,000. Living around the Bay of Bengal can be a dangerous business with Bangladesh a regular guest of tragedy and Thailand more recently with the Tsunami of 2004.

Numbers of this magnitude tend to overhwhelm causing a certain numbness to appear. 90,000 or 120,000, it’s a big number. But I don’t want to dwell on that aspect of the disaster but more on what this means for Burma.

A period of searching and mourning followed by rebuilding will take place, following a similar pattern to these events, but in what framework? The miltary junta, bunch of decrepid bovver boys, has no choice but to allow the world in as it has no hope of handling this on its own. Repression yes! reconstruction nah.

If ever a message was to be heeded this is it. The Saffron Revolution was just the beginning, creating a force of energy which some might say has manifested in this terrible way. It is surely no coincidence that just 2 days away is the proposed referendum on a new constitution. A referendum where you can vote but not against it.

It’s been interesting watching the warlord generals and how they look shellshocked and dazed as the cameras focus in on them. But more than anything they look very human. Sure they have plenty of vicious thugs to carry out their torture and murder but now they look weak as they are exposed to the world.

It’s time for the world to really put the hammer down on these dictators and try and bring about some kind of change. Just being able to live without fear of being carted off to prison or a labour camp would be a good start but this may be the point at which birth, although painful, can be given to a new Burma.

Do you ever feel like life is an endless re-run of Star Wars? Maybe not but news comes that Thailand has floated the idea of a rice cartel along the lines if OPEC.

Not surprisingly the Phillipines, the world’s biggest importer of rice, expressed strong reservations saying almost 3 billion people are rice eaters and calling it inhumane. Oh dear.

One can see his point. But the rise in agricultural commodities is giving producers a great opportunity to flex their muscles for a change and they may see it as one to grasp, especially if they happen to be major importers of oil.

This type of proposal will have many importers worried especially if those imports include oil and rice. We know the impact that the formation of OPEC had on the world economy and coming at at time of global financial instability, this proposal can only add to the uncertainty.

I wanted to share this story about the rehabiltion of child soldiers in Africa. It’s nothing short of a human tragedy and deserves our attention. About 10 years ago I did a course on the International Dimensions of Human Rights. One fact that really troubled me was the sheer numbers of children who had been co-opted by force into becoming soldiers and ultimately killers. The use of drugs and torture was commonplace and the results horrific.

Yet out of this comes a story of healing which has lessons for all of us especially those in developed countries where teenage crime is on the rise. I’ll leave you all to draw your own conclusions.

A week of food riots has seen the Haitian Prime Minister fired by the Senate. Food is right up there on the National Security watch list along with climate change, peak oil and water. This has been simmering for a while now but is starting to loom as a serious global problem.

It’s not a problem that can be considered in isolation. Speculation in land (financial asset bubble), population growth, the bio-fuel issue and climate change have all contributed to a serious problem with the food chain.

Rising oil prices have just been the icing on this unpalatable cake. Is this likely to be contained to developing or poorer nations? Not so say some. In developed nations just-in-time delivery and stocking systems work on very tight margins. Food banks are under serious strain with a whole new layer of users appearing in recent times.

There’s no simple solution to this situation but governments need to take it very seriously.

With rising food prices starting to kick in globally the specter of food fights is becoming a reality (hat tip to Nevil).

Riots have been seen in many countries now and food, like climate change, is starting to be seen as a national security issue.  The Philipines is facing major rice shortages which is almost unthinkable for a country where rice is a staple. It is also causing serious unrest.

Even here in New Zealand consumers are unhappy about paying 60% more for a block of cheese which has been produced down the road.

Its a difficult situation that will take some sorting out. Producers want the best prices they can get and so will sell into the international market. Subsidies continue to distort the market.

World Bank President, Robert Zoellick has suggested a move away from direct aid and an attempt to remove barriers, create local markets and improve local production.

About time! That’s what i like about Kiva which promotes empowerment and local solutions. That is the way forward. Forget about the huge projects of the 1970s and 80s which dropped so many developing nations into the debt trap. Create a level playing field and encourage local solutions.

I finally got round to seeing the Last King of Scotland yesterday. I thought it was a great film not just because of its portrayal of Idi Amin but also the feckless young Scottish doctor who arrived in Uganda hoping to help out, make a difference and have a bit of adventure (preferably sexual).

As Amin prepares him to meet his maker he makes some interesting points to the young man. He tells him in no uncertain terms that Africa is not a game or a place to come a play the altruist…it’s real….and reality is often brutal and bloody. His death was the first real thing the young doctor would experience in his life. As it happens he got away and we are left feeling that the message got through.

Of course the film is fictional though based on the book of the same name which drew on various people and factual events to create the character of Dr Carrigan. Complete with stereotypical English diplomatic spooks, menacing local enforcers and locals with big hearts but no hope, the film almost falls over but for the fact that it’s a fair representation of life in Uganda at that time.

It’s interesting for me also becuase in recent weeks i have met 2 people from Uganda in different contexts both who struck me as being very hopeful about life, passionate about making a difference but also aware that potentially similar problems may be lurking around the corner.

So that brings me to the point of this blog…….is Robert Mugabe the last King of Africa? Watching Zimbabwe implode is not very pleasant even for the dispassionate observer. The similarities with Uganda are there though not as obvious as one might think. Certainly the paranoia is setting in, the violence is on the increase and the general population is now suffering from food and medical shortages, inflation, unemployment.

Mugabe has already used up his fall guy card - the British - with white landowners having been given short shrift over the past decade. So the only people left to get stuck into are his own…..surely he doesn’t have much time left?

The nature of the dictator as a sociopath is well documented. Intransigence and unwillingless to listen are other unwelcome attributes. But is this just an African problem? I don’t think so. Look at Iraq, Serbia even Northern Ireland. Ian Paisley finally agreed with Sinn Fein yesterday as they sat down next to each other…..apparently “never, never, never, never” doesn’t always mean never.

And who is running Russia right now? Surely Putin is only a few steps away from a fully paid up authoritarian….he’s just doing well economically so can afford to be beneficient at the moment.

That could change.

Many old timers weep tears for their beloved Rhodesia but how can a country be prosperous based on the subjugation of others and the expropriation of resources? All around the world we are seeing a slow unwinding of the colonial and imperialist adventures of the last 500 years. Freedom, self determination and removal of the yolk of centralised and external authority is the story of the day. For Africa, stuck in the whirlpool of historical tribal and ethnic conflict, post colonialisation changes, grinding debt and the arms/resource trade, times are difficult.

The best thing the international community could do is to eliminate historical debts and aid at the same time under a guarantee that funds would go towards schools, hospitals and basic infrastructure.

Other than that people have to sort out their own problems in their own backyard. Human nature will no doubt continue to interfere with any positive outcomes but everywhere there are people with hope and the will to make things work.

As they say in New Zealand, she’s a hard road ahead.

debt, zimbabwe, poverty, conflict, mugabe, political institutions, un declaration of human rights, sustainability, new zealand, education, violence, politics, money, africa, uganda, future, Uncategorized