Financial Permaculture: Think Global, Invest Local

These days I get asked by a lot of people where they should invest their money. It’s a good question given uncertain times. Not only are we experiencing a traditional recession but there are concerns about the actual financial system itself.

This in turn has led to a somewhat deeper examination of money itself: its construction, process and ultimately its value.

Personally I’ve been in cash for the last 18 months having sold out of commercial property investments. Now, as interest rates are cut heavily and our banking system is on its knees, cash doesn’t seem as appealing as an investment class.

What if rates continue to fall? What if new rules are introduced such as limits on withdrawals, foreign transfers, currency trading etc? What if interest is frozen, bonds converted to equity and so on.

Gold is often mentioned as something useful to hold. I’m not a big fan of it myself but it’s likely to be worth something at some point so does have some holding appeal.

What I’m most interested in at the moment is investing locally. This could mean sticking in a decent veggie patch (if you have the space, which fortunately in NZ we do). How about investing in renewable energy for the home, solar heating, a wind turbine, battery pack etc? Normally its a bit upfront payment but at least you know you’ll be getting a decent return in KwH rather than cash.

But also investing in local food systems, local infrastructure or local transport. These all appeal because they can provide a return, real or cash,  and they keep cash circulating locally, which keeps people employed and boosts confidence in the community.

It’s an opportunity for local councils to get involved as they are struggling to riase cash at the moment given the rush into government guaranteed bank deposits. Many people talk about sending money overseas as they are worried about the falling NZ$ or whatever your local currency is. I say be careful. If you can’t access your cash in person then you have a much higher risk profile. Foreign cash deposits can be the first items to be frozen when new rules are applied. If you are worried about currency risk you can always do a forward currency trade with your bank or hedge through an online fx company.

There are some useful websites about this including, of course, Financial Permaculture as well as Catherine Austin Fitts at Solari. If readers have any useful links or ideas on this please let me know.

The Suspension of Belief

We’ve talked often on this blog about the necessity to have confidence in the banking system. Paper money is, after all, just paper.

There’s no point playing the blame game. It’s all about what we do now.

Although G7 and the IMF have gone to full battle stations the reality is the die is cast. Markets have crashed, liquidity has disappeared, credit is history and the revaluation and squaring up of positions has to somehow be undertaken.

The margin calls will be coming thick and fast next week. The derivatives nightmare is a beast matched only by the legendary Hydra. Each cut brings forth two new disasters.

The choices facing policymakers are stark and , for them, almost unbelievable.

- Public interest free money will need to be pumped into the system. Not to cover debts but to provide a boost to a money supply which is disintegrating as loans are written off. This should not be a bank bailout but a reconstitution of a money supply from the public. Banking for now is suspended and banks are likely to be worth very little unless they are very well capitalised and have little exposure to falling asset prices. Bank deposits will be uncondtionally guaranteed under this approach.

- Stock markets: Next week will see a wave of selling that can only be described as a death spiral. It is hard to see any approach other than freezing all global stock markets. The alternative is for governments to start buying stocks i.e. nationalisation of business. That would be a very big call but is possible.

_ Currencies: There are potentially very crazy moves ahead. Deficit countries will see huge sell offs so some kind of coordinated intervention will be needed here. It may not be physical but more a guarantee between creditor and debtor nations to maintain current levels.

This is going to be a momentous week. Let’s hope policymakers are up to the task .

Either way

The Crash of ’08: The End of Days

As banks continue to go down and credit default swaps unwind it has become clear that we have experienced a crash. Not a one day cataclysm a la 1987 but a more sustained and painful ratcheting down of markets. It’s like being stuck in a falling elevator which shudders to a halt every 10 floors before lurching further down.

Each stop feels like the last but it never is.

After a horrendous week G7 has responded with a new pledge to do whatever it takes.

The question is will they? Do they know what it’s going to take?

They already said this back in April.

It seems to me that the numbers are no long relevant.The game has been up for some time now.

Everywhere you look monetary authorities are looking to buy something whether its banks or stocks.

Forget it…..some banks arent worth it. Deposits in major banks should be guaranteed. That is people’s money not an investment (well it is sort of but not for most).

Stocks should go down to wherever they go down to. The US via the Plunge Protection Team has supported the equity markets for too long.

They should let it act like the market it is supposed to be. Once leveraged trading is stripped out out the market we can go back to buying stocks in a normal investment manner.

As i keep stressing the financial system has been nationalised in all but name. Psycholigically that is hard to take for many because nationalisation is a dirty word to many in the markets, just as priviatisation is to others.

Money is a national tool. Regardless of the shennanigans around the BIS and the Fed and their accountability to government and citizens, we can assume that governments will reassert their sovereign right to coin.

What is interesting in the G7 communique is Point 3:

“3. Ensure that our banks and other major financial intermediaries, as needed, can raise capital from public as well as private sources, in sufficient amounts to re-establish confidence and permit them to continue lending to households and businesses.”

I like the inclusion of “public” sources.

I think we can expect more and more public money flowing into banks coffers.

Part nationalisation is already here. Depending on how the markets fare from here will determine how far this goes.The margin calls are coming thick and fast and the only place to get cash is from equities. Given the lack of concrete proposals (let’s face it all they are saying is that they’ll bring loads of ambulances) markets will continue to tremble.

The timing has never been better for a sovereign reassertion of the right to create money.

On the US the AMI continues to work on its American Monetary Act and in the UK the Forum for Stable Currencies promotes its series of EDMs on Public Money. More and more we need constructive proposals that can be presented to Government for debate.

There is no time to waste.

US on the abyss

A whole week drifts by and as yet no signed bailout deal is on the table.

Let’s be clear about this: it isn’t going to work. Nothing less than a full recapitalisation of affected banks and financial insitutions will suffice. Repackaging bad debts has been tried already.

What should happen is a debt for equity approach. As it stands now equity holders have (and should be) absolutely wiped out. They have done their dough.

But the real sticking point is all those bondholders. Bonds rank ahead of equity in a liquidation but to avoid that bond holders would swap debt for equity: yes its a disaster scenario but it allows balance sheets to be reformatted (esssentially this is a reformatting of numbers on a spreadsheet).

Given the leverage in debt markets the value of the equity will be piddly but there is not a lot of choice.

There is no one taxpayers should be bailing out failed institutions.

The only solution for taxpayer involvement is complete nationalisation of failing institutions without any fancy deals.

The half way both up approach will not make anyone happy and merely patch up a badly flawed system.

Tipping Points

Why do models never predict catacylsmic events? you know the ones where everything gets blown up….20 years of making safe returns followed by a complete loss of capital.

After LTCM blew up and was repackaged it seemed like no drama was too big to handle. Just reinflate, repackage, securitise and call in the delivery men. But a look at nature shows us this isn’t always possible.

We have reached tipping points before. Easter Island was a good example of how populations and resources co-exist in relationship which should be predictable but actually isn’t. When do you realise that you have cut down too many trees?

We fished cod merrily out of the Grand Banks, a steady and stable provider of cod still one day they disappeared never to return.

Now we have Peak Oil or do we? When will oil production drop off the cliff and what will that mean. Will we continue to fool ourselves into believing that there is actually an endless supply. Can we predict the outcome? I doubt it. Like the Easter Islanders we will merrily be chugging away until one day it dawns on us that its over.

We will fight it of course. However, nature is alot harder to work with than numbers on a spreadsheet. Boy we can make those up forever even if we can’t magic up fish, trees or oil.

Here’s a nice piece from Taleb, of the Black Swan, talking about our inability to forecast meltdowns. The question we have to ask ourselves is simple. Deep down do we really believe we can continue on in the same over consumptive, debt leveraged manner?

We have a great opportunity to sweep away the excesses of the last 20 years.

But try telling that to the masters of the universe. To them it’s just another hiccup in an new paradigm of economic stability.

Somehow I think they will be proved wrong again.

Government Sachs

As if there could be any doubt about who is running US financial policy it has been announced that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be allowed to become “bank holding companies” which will allow them access to the Fed’s discount window thus giving them an easier source of funding.

Shame Lehmans didn’t get this little gift. Then again they didn’t have anyone in the Cabinet to look after them.

It’s no surprise that a recent poll showed American’s most concerned about rebuilding their reputation overseas as their most pressing issue (83%). The country has well and truly gone down the tubes and under a Republican watch. Some mentioned National Socialism was alive and well in the USA.

Stablising financial markets is one thing but underwriting the losses of the banking system is another. This just confirms everything Thomas Jefferson ever said about the bankers and also confirms that the US is no longer the world’s leading financial center.