Fed throws huge Hail Mary……..

Another day, another bail out but this time they have thrown the play book out the window.

It feels like a 4th down with 80m to go and 10 seconds on the clock.

Game over.

Wrap up the toxic stuff (we’ve heard that before) and hopefully it will all go away. Strange that Goldmans have been spared the ignominy of going under as Paulson comes in to the rescue. Anyone wondering about the Goldmans cabal at the centre of a government that always yells out “we had no choice” will be muttering feverishly about the intervention on Friday.

Forget about whether the US should lose its AAA rating or the $ be heaved off the cliff, what concerns me is the idea that ex-market players are running the public finances. Why not let all the banks fail? If that’s the outcome of the “free market” then let it happen. As long as depositors money is safe the rest is a simple case of caveat emptor.

The taxpayer is picking up the bill so why not pay as little as possible.

And what then you ask? Well the banking system will be nationalised to a point, focused in the issuance of money as opposed to making loans. The point is that there are elements of our financial system that we could well do without.

They said the Titanic was unsinkable.

Game over for the Fed

6 months ago I summarised the status of the US banking system finishing with the line “the financial system on the verge of complete collapse”.

I haven’t added much recently because there was no need. It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion: you stand there with yoru mouth wide open unable to speak as you take in the enormity of the action in front of you.

What’s left to say? The banking system is effectively nationalised but we knew that with Northern Rock. The difference between Lehmans and Bear Stearns was simply timing. BS was first in the queue and so got some help. By the time Lehmans (who I once worked for) came around no one wanted to touch it and given that they didn’t have customer deposits they could be allowed to fail. Mind you I see Barclays already snapping up some units in the US.

Now we have AIG, a private company, but an insurer so therefore a pretty important spoke the the wheel of the economy. $80bln…..the Fed’s printing press must be running to breaking point. Anyone keeping count of all this?

Don’t bother.

The US debt position is in La-La Land.

This move on AIG is dangerous. Not only has the banking system been nationalised but the stock market is being underwritten. Why the S+P isn’t at 1000 is beyond me. This artificial support of the stock market is just as crazy.

The Fed worries about adding “to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance”. Well that’s fair enough but that is the reality. The US has overextended itself over the last 8 years with cheap credit and massive leverage through financial intermediaries.

It’s over. The Fed should be over too.

The authorities need to take a cold hard look at the financial system and the disaster it has wreaked.

No clearer evidence of this has been the advancement into positions of political power by ex-investment bankers particularly from Goldmans. The leverage game must surely be over now.

We are watching the end of 20 years of US financial domination through global investment banking. The end of financial assets being marketed as investments and hopefully a complete reorganisation of the banking and financial system onto a sounder and more stable position, once which encourages productive endeavour and not constant speculation.

NZ economy on the skids

New Zealand joins its larger and more illustrious economies, the U.S. and the U.K., on the slippery slope with the release today of pretty poor employment numbers. 29,000 jobs lost is no small number for a small economy and with retail numbers looking very soft as well, the Reserve Bank will soon be reaching for the “cut” lever on its interest rate management dashboard.

Regardless of the credit crunch, employment really is the key to how the economy will fare. As long as people are employed then somehow they can get by and service their debts. Well mostly. But now this will see a deeper problem emerge and that is one where people simply cannot service mortgages or debt in any way.

This will reverberate throughout the whole economy. Added to this is a report out today showing house sales down 40% in the last quarter and 53% lower last month from the previous year.

Ouch.

Chinese Diaspora Mobilizes

The Olympic Torch continues to trip and stumble its way to Beijing. That there would be protests along the way was never in doubt but what has been a surprise is the mobilization of Chinese citizens along the way. In Australia there were clashes between Chinese supporters and pro-Tibet protesters. The same thing happened in Japan yesterday.

This is a new phenomenon and one that should be taken note of carefully. There are a lot Chinese living overseas, many of whom were glad to get way in the bad old days of communism and repression. Now things have changed. China is open for business and the most dynamic economy in the world. Suddenly its cool to be Chinese (well sort of) but just as India was “in” a few years ago, China is now all the rage. With this has come a new sense of purpose and national identity both in China and overseas. It certainly gives rise to a lot of comment and opinion.

Where this ends up is anyone’s guess but a resurgent China will be a shock for many people used to browbeating and looking down on China as simply a repressive regime with super cheap labour.

The Chinese vice commerce minister said on Friday “Chinese enterprise should transform themselves from purely from being exporters and importers to being multinational companies through overseas acquisition and production”. That’s a big statement. We’ve already seen this approach with  stakes being taken in US banks and industries but these guys are not messing around. With $1.6trln in reserves they can pretty much buy anything.

They are smart. Why buy US treasuries when you can buy US companies? They can spread influence using economic rather than military means and of course secure a constant supply of the resources required.

It’s a fascinating developmental process to watch and the ramifications are bewildering to imagine.

We certainly do live in interesting times.

UK Banks still in distress

Following on from their generous bail out of Northern Rock, the UK Government, otherwise know as the taxpayer, has opened its arms to any old piece of paper banks have sitting around on their balance sheet.

Or to be more accurate, the Bank of England will accept mortgage backed securities in return for government bonds. Nice trade if you cant get it. The amounts mentioned are 50 to 200bln pounds (where the hell is my pound key?) but basically it’s a free for all.

Now we can expect to see banks reaching for the refinancing button in order to take advantage of this. RBS has already put its hand up for 10 to 12bln of fresh capital plus a 6bln write down.

Ok so its just more mess. The markets may rally on this hoping it can help clear the looming crisis in the mortgage market but the numbers are really starting to mount up and this is just very bad news indeed.

The key issue here is the capital adequacy of the banking system. It’s proven to be the achilles heel which is why the authorities have had no option but to underwrite the system.

Given this exposure of the fragility of the banking system it is time to ask questions about capital adequacy and the way banks are regulated and allowed to operate.

The Losses Mount: Merrills $29bln and counting

Merrills realeased another $9bln from trading losses and decided to fire 4000 people who probably never made a trade in their life. That brings the total for 3 quarters to $29bln, a not insignificant sum.

Citigroup was in there as well with another $5bln loss for the quarter and another 9000 jobs to go in addition to the 13000 already on the streets.  Naturally the stock rallied…phew only $5bln!

It’s interesting to see how far this continues because this isn’t a good show at all. The numbers just keep getting bigger and bigger. Citigroup still has $60bln worth of exposure to sub-prime and other loans. What worries me is the 7.7% Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio.

That is what this is all about. Leverage to the hilt and be damned. Banks have become nothing more than licenced fronts for gambling.  Fair enough but that isn’t why people deposit their money in them.

Safe as houses? Well that depends what the house is worth.