Financial Literacy: Yes Please

In the latest RBNZ Bulletin, alongside a paper on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, there is a paper on financial literacy and how important this is for society as a whole. Hurrah! Well almost.

I was very excited about this paper as i think financial literacy if absolutely crucial to our education system and the success of our society. However, when I read through it I felt some disappointment because the missed the most important bit out.

Money itself: What is it? How is it made? How much of it is there? How can it be created and destroyed…………and the best one: Who makes it?

Alas it focused on issues like the time value of money, risk, return, arithmetic and stuff like that. All very good and a positive step forward but it’s not enough.

This is not unexpected though. Whenever I interrogate any government official on the issue of money their eyes glaze over or they simply express incomprehension as to what I  am going on about.

There is only one political party in NZ that understand this issue and that is the Democrats for Social Credit. They are having a conference in Christchurch this weekend and you would probably learn more from that than reading the RBNZ bulletin.

Let’s have it RBNZ!

You have made a good start but let’s have full disclosure on our money system. You know it makes sense.

Internet Banking: Coming Soon

I’ve been following the spread of microfinance for a while and have been getting involved with Kiva which has been a great experience. I have also noted the rise of social lending businesses such as Zopa, Prosper and even Facebook. Jason has written a good piece on the rise of new forms of financing.

What interest me further is whether all finance can move to a P2P platform and seriously eat into the major lending markets currently controlled by the commercial banks.

I think it could do. This crosses the web with money and complimentary currencies.

Remember that anyone can create “money” if they really want, it just can’t be in the form of bank notes issued by the Reserve Bank. Commercial banks create bank loans by a simple bookkeeping entry. Only 2% of the money supply in NZ is in the form of notes and coin so banks don’t actually hold any money other than a bit of cash.

My point is that P2P finance could take off in a very big way once we get the hang of it. My guess is that the firms currently involved don’t realise how big this could be.

Expect the central banks to cast their beady eyes over these operations once they get a roll on. For now it’s just some web bizness but this feels like 1694 all over again.

RBNZ: Have They Lost the Plot?

There has been a lot of hand wringing over the recent Reserve Bank’s intervention in the currency market. So what’s the story here?

Well the RB has a clear mandate to keep inflation, as measured by the CPI, between 1-3% on an annual basis. According to them they also say that,

“The Bank is required to ensure that, throughout the economy, money works as well as possible as a mechanism for making transactions, storing value, and keeping account.”

So let’s say they are also responsible for price stability in a general sense i.e. no serious asset bubbles or major deflationary shocks.

So how are they doing?

Since 1998 the CPI has risen 20.7% to December 2006. So an average of 2.5% per annum which is within the prescribed band.

But the key worry, or so they keep repeating, has been the housing market which in the same period has risen 143%.

So what have they done about it?

From Mar 04 to Dec 06 they raised interest rates by 2%, from 5.25% to 7.25%. That doesn’t sound like a great deal by historical standards and clearly has not had any impact.

From Mar 04 to Mar 05 rates went up 1.5% as inflation took off towards 3%. However, they stopped when they should have kept going. When CPI hit 3.4% and stayed above, the bank should have got really serious and jacked rates up very quickly.

They didn’t. CPI was above 3% from Sep 2005 to Sep 2006 and they moved only 50bp. This was their big mistake. With house prices on the march as well they should have had rates up to 8% by June 06. They are a year behind the curve and that could cause some major problems.

Alan Bollard has been soft in his approach and this may well stem from the false comfort that low global rates has brought. The great inflation crush of the late 1990s has seen global rates fall into ranges not seen for many a year. Central bankers have been playing in a very small range and have been lulled into a false sense of security.

All around us we witness the asset price bubble caused by cheap global credit. The Japanese are still at it pumping out cheap yen that no one really wants. This is a major disaster waiting to happen. We’ve seen it before when USD/JPY fell to 79.65 back in 1995 on the back of US trade concerns and Asian Central banks dumping their US$. For now the flow out of the yen and into the kiwi continues with a rise of over 15% in the last 6 months.

Yesterday Winston Peters called for an amendment to the Reserve Bank Act asking that the Reserve Bank take a more rounded approach to managing monetary policy. I have to agree with him that a major review is needed and that simply using the OCR to control the economy is not working.

Submissions for the inquiry into a future monetary policy framework close on 19th July. I will post my submission up here in due course. It’s a great opportunity to throw open the arcane nature of our monetary system and make proposals that may lead to a more productive and stable economic system.

The Nature of Money

In a previous post Does Money Grow on Trees? I looked at how money comes into existence, but in a broad sense of the word.

In his paper, The Nature of Money, John Kutyn examines in detail what money is starting from the late 16th century. He explores the development of what we know as bank notes from their early days as accommodation bills and the establishment of the Bank of England as a way of funding a war against France.

He follows the development of money and banking primarily through the legal process andlooks at numerous cases in law of challenges to the meaning of money and the transactions it is used for.

He challenges the banking system to show that it is not acting fraudulently in law when it uses deposits as money and actually creates money via new loans. Of course only a Reserve Bank can create money or so the law states. So is true? Well i suggest you read his paper and draw your own conclusions but he makes a compelling case.

Not content with that he then moves on to looking at the economic impacts of the current system which has a built in imperative for growth resulting in continued boom bust cycles. He argues that this is down to the interest burden and that debt free money is the only way a stable economy can be achieved.

As we approach yet another global bust and possible depression it is worth relfecting on the themes in this paper.

Money doesn’t grow on trees or so they say

They also say that money makes the world go round…well metaphorically it does. It oils the wheels of commerce and enables us to transact with each other and exchange our goods and services.

But how does money actually grow? There always seems to be more of it around. Who creates it?

You probably assume your local central bank does because only they can print notes and coins. That much is true but that’s only a bit of the story. Currently only 2-3% of the total money supply is created in the form of notes and coins that we keep in our wallets and purses.

The rest? Well as JK Galbriath noted the way in which most money is created is “so simple that the mind is repelled”. The private banking system simply create the balance of new money by issuing new loans.

That’s it. For those of you who thought banks lent out money you have deposited with them i’m sorry to inform you that this is not the case.

If you deposit $1000 in the bank, they now have the ability to lend out (and in the process create new money) up to $10000. Of course they charge interest on that loan which is where they make their huge profits from.

I’ll give you an example:

In New Zealand the money supply has increased 101% in the last 8 years. So the total money stock has more than doubled in 8 years!! In that time house prices have risen 143%.

But the official measure of inflation has only risen 20%. Hello…..what is going on here? Yes it is a complete mess.

It is not the central bank or government printing money and causing huge (but unmeasured inflation). It’s the private banks who are doing it! The ones who scream and shout if governments ever think about reclaiming their right to issue money interest free on behalf of their citizens.

It is one of the greatest swindles of in history.

It requires that people sit up, take notice and look hard at what is happening around them. In the US especially the system is starting to creak…..look at the housing market and the lenders that operate in it.

Please see the following sites for more information. Once you learn about this life will never be the same

US: www.monetary.org

UK: www.monetaryreformparty.org.uk

Can: www.comer.org

Aus: www.peoplesbankparty.org

As my old history teacher said read, learn and inwardly digest.

The Last King of Africa - Robert Mugabe?

I finally got round to seeing the Last King of Scotland yesterday. I thought it was a great film not just because of its portrayal of Idi Amin but also the feckless young Scottish doctor who arrived in Uganda hoping to help out, make a difference and have a bit of adventure (preferably sexual).

As Amin prepares him to meet his maker he makes some interesting points to the young man. He tells him in no uncertain terms that Africa is not a game or a place to come a play the altruist…it’s real….and reality is often brutal and bloody. His death was the first real thing the young doctor would experience in his life. As it happens he got away and we are left feeling that the message got through.

Of course the film is fictional though based on the book of the same name which drew on various people and factual events to create the character of Dr Carrigan. Complete with stereotypical English diplomatic spooks, menacing local enforcers and locals with big hearts but no hope, the film almost falls over but for the fact that it’s a fair representation of life in Uganda at that time.

It’s interesting for me also becuase in recent weeks i have met 2 people from Uganda in different contexts both who struck me as being very hopeful about life, passionate about making a difference but also aware that potentially similar problems may be lurking around the corner.

So that brings me to the point of this blog…….is Robert Mugabe the last King of Africa? Watching Zimbabwe implode is not very pleasant even for the dispassionate observer. The similarities with Uganda are there though not as obvious as one might think. Certainly the paranoia is setting in, the violence is on the increase and the general population is now suffering from food and medical shortages, inflation, unemployment.

Mugabe has already used up his fall guy card - the British - with white landowners having been given short shrift over the past decade. So the only people left to get stuck into are his own…..surely he doesn’t have much time left?

The nature of the dictator as a sociopath is well documented. Intransigence and unwillingless to listen are other unwelcome attributes. But is this just an African problem? I don’t think so. Look at Iraq, Serbia even Northern Ireland. Ian Paisley finally agreed with Sinn Fein yesterday as they sat down next to each other…..apparently “never, never, never, never” doesn’t always mean never.

And who is running Russia right now? Surely Putin is only a few steps away from a fully paid up authoritarian….he’s just doing well economically so can afford to be beneficient at the moment.

That could change.

Many old timers weep tears for their beloved Rhodesia but how can a country be prosperous based on the subjugation of others and the expropriation of resources? All around the world we are seeing a slow unwinding of the colonial and imperialist adventures of the last 500 years. Freedom, self determination and removal of the yolk of centralised and external authority is the story of the day. For Africa, stuck in the whirlpool of historical tribal and ethnic conflict, post colonialisation changes, grinding debt and the arms/resource trade, times are difficult.

The best thing the international community could do is to eliminate historical debts and aid at the same time under a guarantee that funds would go towards schools, hospitals and basic infrastructure.

Other than that people have to sort out their own problems in their own backyard. Human nature will no doubt continue to interfere with any positive outcomes but everywhere there are people with hope and the will to make things work.

As they say in New Zealand, she’s a hard road ahead.

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