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Archive for September, 2008

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Fed throws huge Hail Mary……..

Sunday, September 21st, 2008

Another day, another bail out but this time they have thrown the play book out the window.

It feels like a 4th down with 80m to go and 10 seconds on the clock.

Game over.

Wrap up the toxic stuff (we’ve heard that before) and hopefully it will all go away. Strange that Goldmans have been spared the ignominy of going under as Paulson comes in to the rescue. Anyone wondering about the Goldmans cabal at the centre of a government that always yells out “we had no choice” will be muttering feverishly about the intervention on Friday.

Forget about whether the US should lose its AAA rating or the $ be heaved off the cliff, what concerns me is the idea that ex-market players are running the public finances. Why not let all the banks fail? If that’s the outcome of the “free market” then let it happen. As long as depositors money is safe the rest is a simple case of caveat emptor.

The taxpayer is picking up the bill so why not pay as little as possible.

And what then you ask? Well the banking system will be nationalised to a point, focused in the issuance of money as opposed to making loans. The point is that there are elements of our financial system that we could well do without.

They said the Titanic was unsinkable.

Tags: credit crunch, federal reserve, financial crisis, markets, money | No Comments »

Goodbye Gordon Gekko

Thursday, September 18th, 2008

Who could forget the electrifying performance of Michael Douglas in “Wall Street” a film that still smolders in the consciousness as reflecting the canvas that is the financial market.

Though the products have changed the mantra hasn’t: Greed is Good.

Greed as an incentive to productivity? I don’t think so. Look at the innovation coming out of the technology world and compare it with the innovation coming out of the financial world. Technology is founded on the idea of making life easier, efficient and fun. Innovation in finance is a way of slicing and dicing the same piece of paper.

But what’s the paper made of? Not much really as we are finding out.

The investment banks that rolled out of the 80s and dominated the global financial landscape are falling like dominoes. Falling on the back of injudicious management of risk, capital and balance sheets.

But that’s not where the rot really starts. Greed is just another human emotion, another desire. Living in a world with few boundaries it should come as no shock that we have tipped over into the abyss.

The money seems to have been flowing like the pump was turned on full steam, an inexhaustable supply of cash to be invested in anything that moved or, in the case of property, did nothing.

Now the party is well and truly over. After numerous attempts to keep it going by the self proclaimed master, Alan Greenspan, no one can take anymore. Its like turning up to a mad all day party at 4am with another case of wine or keg of beer. It has no value. Everyone is asleep, passed out.

It will take a while to play out. Some more institutions will go under probably in the form of a shotgun merger, a hastily arranged monetary marriage with glum faces standing behind the bride and groom attempting to be happy.

Just last night the FSA in the UK talked about how “well capitalised” HBOS was. At the same time they were forced into a “merger” with Lloyds. Oliver Stone couldn’t make this up if he was on acid.

But looking ahead can we find anything in the rubble to work with? Well maybe.

It’s time for a reform of the banking system, root and branch.

Banks can go back to being deposit takers and loan makers (though I think P2P lending will eventually take this over).

A Parliamentary institution can take over the task of supply money to the economic system via a Universal Basic Income and Direct expenditure. This would be managed with excrutiating process and targets.

Not like our current Central Bankers who have given up on targetting inflation: one because they can’t get it to work and two because they are more worried about the impact on financial markets.

It doesn’t work. The current system promotes inflation, falling real wages and the treatment of money as a financial asset.

So when we see the reaction to Parliamentary control of the money supply we can simply point out the failures of the private system for all to see.

Tags: banking, central banks, credit, financial crisis, interest, money | Comments Off

Game over for the Fed

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

6 months ago I summarised the status of the US banking system finishing with the line “the financial system on the verge of complete collapse”.

I haven’t added much recently because there was no need. It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion: you stand there with yoru mouth wide open unable to speak as you take in the enormity of the action in front of you.

What’s left to say? The banking system is effectively nationalised but we knew that with Northern Rock. The difference between Lehmans and Bear Stearns was simply timing. BS was first in the queue and so got some help. By the time Lehmans (who I once worked for) came around no one wanted to touch it and given that they didn’t have customer deposits they could be allowed to fail. Mind you I see Barclays already snapping up some units in the US.

Now we have AIG, a private company, but an insurer so therefore a pretty important spoke the the wheel of the economy. $80bln…..the Fed’s printing press must be running to breaking point. Anyone keeping count of all this?

Don’t bother.

The US debt position is in La-La Land.

This move on AIG is dangerous. Not only has the banking system been nationalised but the stock market is being underwritten. Why the S+P isn’t at 1000 is beyond me. This artificial support of the stock market is just as crazy.

The Fed worries about adding “to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance”. Well that’s fair enough but that is the reality. The US has overextended itself over the last 8 years with cheap credit and massive leverage through financial intermediaries.

It’s over. The Fed should be over too.

The authorities need to take a cold hard look at the financial system and the disaster it has wreaked.

No clearer evidence of this has been the advancement into positions of political power by ex-investment bankers particularly from Goldmans. The leverage game must surely be over now.

We are watching the end of 20 years of US financial domination through global investment banking. The end of financial assets being marketed as investments and hopefully a complete reorganisation of the banking and financial system onto a sounder and more stable position, once which encourages productive endeavour and not constant speculation.

Tags: banking, credit, federal reserve, financial crisis, markets | No Comments »

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    I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking, I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. I write about the intersection of economic, social and environmental issues . My prime interest is in designing better systems to create a better world. I welcome comments and input.

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