2 years seems a long time but feels like yesterday. In that period the NZ$ fell from 0.82 to 0.49 and now is back trading just below 0.68. Wow…talk about currency whiplash.

So back then I suggested the RBNZ should think about selling as much NZ$ as they could. Why? Why go against prevailing market sentiment which is that intervention doesn’t really work and simply provides a target for the speculating hordes which incidentally account for 95% of the volume of daily trades.

That’s a fair sentiment when your currency is falling but when it’s rising? And when you have an eye popping foreign debt of almost 140% of GDP……that’s foreign debt not overall debt.

And yet the punters keep buying the NZ$. Perhaps they know something I don’t. Maybe 50 years worth of oil has been discovered in the Southern Basin. Who knows?

The point is that at some point that money has to be paid back and at the moment, due to the sneaky monster that is compound interest, we can’t even get close to reducing it.

But now is the time to strike.

Again I would like to suggest that the RBNZ starts selling NZ$. When you have a lot of something to sell it’s always best to do it when others are keen to buy. Now is that chance.

By selling NZ$ now and paying back, or at least holding for that same purpose, it will take the pressure off the very precarious dependency we have on overseas lenders.

This doesn’t eliminate the debt but simply transfers it to a domestic situation where it can be managed at lower rates and where there is no threat of having to suddenly repay.

How can the RBNZ do this? Again this is very simple. Print NZ$ and buy US$. There is no change to the actual money supply just how the debt is denominated.

Considering the implosion Iceland experienced and the unfolding disaster that is Ireland (surviving only due to its membership of the Euro), it makes complete sense just to get on with this now.

To allow foreign debt to be run at such a level is financial mismanagement of the highest level.

It also shows a willingness to be dictated to and dependent on overseas interests. This makes no sense at all when the country’s economy security is at stake.

Pretty bubbles in the air.

They fly so high,

Nearly reach the sky,

Then like my dreams,

They fade and die.

Fortune’s always hiding,

I’ve looked everywhere,

I’m forever blowing bubbles,

Pretty bubbles in the air.

Never did I believe the mighty Hammers would have understood the machinations of central banking so well. Maybe they knew?

Reading the recent Fed statement, one may feel that the lessons of the recent crisis have not been fully understood or learnt. That’s the problem with the ability to print new money to replace old. It gives a feeling of relief and so help the markets to recover, in fact recover strongly. But there is nothing here that suggests the policymakers know what they are doing.

Crisis dealt with? For now.

We’ve talked often on this blog about the necessity to have confidence in the banking system. Paper money is, after all, just paper.

There’s no point playing the blame game. It’s all about what we do now.

Although G7 and the IMF have gone to full battle stations the reality is the die is cast. Markets have crashed, liquidity has disappeared, credit is history and the revaluation and squaring up of positions has to somehow be undertaken.

The margin calls will be coming thick and fast next week. The derivatives nightmare is a beast matched only by the legendary Hydra. Each cut brings forth two new disasters.

The choices facing policymakers are stark and , for them, almost unbelievable.

- Public interest free money will need to be pumped into the system. Not to cover debts but to provide a boost to a money supply which is disintegrating as loans are written off. This should not be a bank bailout but a reconstitution of a money supply from the public. Banking for now is suspended and banks are likely to be worth very little unless they are very well capitalised and have little exposure to falling asset prices. Bank deposits will be uncondtionally guaranteed under this approach.

- Stock markets: Next week will see a wave of selling that can only be described as a death spiral. It is hard to see any approach other than freezing all global stock markets. The alternative is for governments to start buying stocks i.e. nationalisation of business. That would be a very big call but is possible.

_ Currencies: There are potentially very crazy moves ahead. Deficit countries will see huge sell offs so some kind of coordinated intervention will be needed here. It may not be physical but more a guarantee between creditor and debtor nations to maintain current levels.

This is going to be a momentous week. Let’s hope policymakers are up to the task .

Either way

A whole week drifts by and as yet no signed bailout deal is on the table.

Let’s be clear about this: it isn’t going to work. Nothing less than a full recapitalisation of affected banks and financial insitutions will suffice. Repackaging bad debts has been tried already.

What should happen is a debt for equity approach. As it stands now equity holders have (and should be) absolutely wiped out. They have done their dough.

But the real sticking point is all those bondholders. Bonds rank ahead of equity in a liquidation but to avoid that bond holders would swap debt for equity: yes its a disaster scenario but it allows balance sheets to be reformatted (esssentially this is a reformatting of numbers on a spreadsheet).

Given the leverage in debt markets the value of the equity will be piddly but there is not a lot of choice.

There is no one taxpayers should be bailing out failed institutions.

The only solution for taxpayer involvement is complete nationalisation of failing institutions without any fancy deals.

The half way both up approach will not make anyone happy and merely patch up a badly flawed system.

Following on from their generous bail out of Northern Rock, the UK Government, otherwise know as the taxpayer, has opened its arms to any old piece of paper banks have sitting around on their balance sheet.

Or to be more accurate, the Bank of England will accept mortgage backed securities in return for government bonds. Nice trade if you cant get it. The amounts mentioned are 50 to 200bln pounds (where the hell is my pound key?) but basically it’s a free for all.

Now we can expect to see banks reaching for the refinancing button in order to take advantage of this. RBS has already put its hand up for 10 to 12bln of fresh capital plus a 6bln write down.

Ok so its just more mess. The markets may rally on this hoping it can help clear the looming crisis in the mortgage market but the numbers are really starting to mount up and this is just very bad news indeed.

The key issue here is the capital adequacy of the banking system. It’s proven to be the achilles heel which is why the authorities have had no option but to underwrite the system.

Given this exposure of the fragility of the banking system it is time to ask questions about capital adequacy and the way banks are regulated and allowed to operate.

The G7 communique from the current meeting makes for interesting reading. Their focus has been wide ranging and, for a change, not just on currencies though the headline statement does make a clear reference to recent moves.

What I took note of was their concerns around bank capital. This is really where the crunch point is located. They call for the Basel Committee to review liquidity risk management guidelines and a quick disclosure of write downs ands revaluations (or in reality devaluations).

The accounting for off balance sheet items was also raised, particularly the valuation of assets in a time of financial stress. That should cause palpitations amongst traders of credit default swaps. Quite frankly some of this stuff can only be valued when its traded. The idea that there is some kind of two way market is really a myth. That in itself should make regulators, as well as bank shareholders, sit up and think about some of the toxic trades sitting around on the books.

They also call for a speedy implementation of Basel II. I think they should tear up Basel II and move straight onto Basel III but more on that another time.

They realise the game is up and the time has come for a thorough overhaul of the system itself. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as more and more unwinding takes place. As far as currencies go, China was gently reminded to hurry up and revalue the Yuan and the market was reminded that G7 wasn’t happy about some of the moves we had in March.  Whether that helps the $ is anyone’s guess but they better have an intervention plan up their sleeves before the $ takes another big dump.

The markets had a nice rally but reality is never too far away in markets and the last couple of weeks may have just been a pause for thought.