December 2nd, 2008

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In the end it’s all about maths

Buying a house used to be so simple. 2-3 times your income or 3-4 if you had joint ones. This was before the days of the grand pyramid scheme known as financial deregulation. The formula was fixed at a level that had been shown to be affordable.

So what happened to the simple model?

This quote may explain it.

It’s from a piece on the sub-prime web by Michael Lewis of Liars Poker fame,

He called Standard & Poors and asked what would happen to default rates if real estate prices fell. The man at S&P couldn’t say; its model for home prices had no ability to accept a negative number. They were just assuming home prices would keep going up“, Eisman says

Nice one. This idea, that things keep going up, seems to have become instilled into our eco-social fabric. Buy houses, buy stocks….they always go up…..well at least in the long run.

The dreaded long run that usually ends in death, mercifully for some.

With a belief system like that it’s no wonder that the recent crash will go down in the annals of history alongside the South Sea bubble, Tulip Mania and the Great Depression.

But really it’s quite simple: learn to trust numbers. They never lie.

November 13th, 2008

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UN Declaration of Human Rights: Article 10

Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.

In many countries it’s hard to fund an impartial tribunal never mind actually get a hearing. Nowhere is this more difficult than the abusive regime in Burma which jailed at least 11dissidents, involved in the recent monk led uprising, to 65 years in jail.

No defense. Closed session.

Nice to see Obama looking to close Guantanamo Bay. The need for due process has never been more pressing.

November 9th, 2008

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Pump up the Volume: China Stimulates

Not wanting to bve left out of the party, China announced a huge stimulus package over the weekend. $600bln or thereabouts is not be to sneezed at. The Chinese are taking no chances with collapsing global trade and economic activity. They have an large domestic economy and plenty of headroom to generate homegrown action.

They also have the money to do it.

As Yves notes the sums involved are getting to the point where a trillion doesn’t raise eyebrows. The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding quicker than a fast food muncher’s waistline. $2trln or will it be 3? Who knows? Who cares anymore? It’s like the end of a Monopoly game where the deals come thick and fast and the rent for landing on Mayfair (or Park Avenue) breaks your bank.

At the same time one continues to hear, in the background, that ecosystem stress is alive and well. As I noted last week there are some major concerns about the level of ecological debt. In a report by the WWF, called The Living Planet, they estimate some $4-5trln worth of ecological damage is occuring on an annual basis.

Deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, ecological breakdown and over population.

Your cash losing its value every day as the printing presses run wild.

Time for a pause and a lie down.

November 7th, 2008

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Wokai: Start it Up

I mentioned Wokai briefly in the previous post but after closer examination they deserve the full monty. Developed by 2 smart ladies (Courtney McColgan and Casey Wilson) from the US who met studying advanced Chinese at Tsinghua University.

Wokai means “I start” in Chinese and represents the entreprenuerial spirit of microfinance. It looks an amazing undertaking. With over a sixth of the world’s population the potential for domestic economic activity is enormous.

With 300,000,000 living below the poverty line and the Rural Credit Bank only servicing 25% of demand, there is clearly a large market here for small, flexible lending which is the hallmark of microfinance.

It’s another exciting addition to the microfinance and P2P stable of companies. As long term readers will know I believe strongly that P2P financing will replace traditonal banking systems within 20 years.

Who knows it may be sooner with organisations like Wokai springing forth.

November 6th, 2008

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UN Declaration of Human Rights: Article 9

No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.

The focus so far has been on freedom, equality and the application of the rule of law. But no article better enshrines the fear many people live with, namely that someone will come to your house and take you away.

Arbitrary arrest and detention are weapons of fear. They walk closely in hand with torture, which can be liberally applied in some dark, dank cell where no one is watching.

This is a weapon for crushing democracy and freedom. Countries like Burma continue to use it today to make sure their population is suppressed and bathed in fear.

When you go to bed tonight spare a thought for those who sleep lightly whilst waiting for the knock at the door.

November 6th, 2008

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The Girl Effect

Remember a time when we hoped women would take over the world and make it a better place?I picked up this story on the Girl Effect from the super Wokai crew who are focused on microfinance in China,

When I look at the breakdown of my Kiva loans I see 80% of my loans going to women. It makes sense really as they are at the providing end of the scale: food, retail, clothing, agriculture.

So this one is for the girls today

About

I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking, I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. I write about the intersection of economic, social and environmental issues . My prime interest is in designing better systems to create a better world. I welcome comments and input.

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