Because of its closed monetary system, microfinance, using external funds, has been tricky to deliver into China. So you will notice Kiva does not offer loans there as yet. However, Wokai, which I featured a while ago, has started up and is making great progress in delivering finance to those who are unable to access it through traditional banking channels.

It’s always good to see footage from the field and here is a great video interview with Casey Wilson, the co-founder and CEO, shot by GrubbyLens. These personal stories help build the picture and make the connection more real.

Facebook for Farmers from grubbylens on Vimeo.

I always remember this day and this event. Mainly because it screwed up my plans to cross China and get the Trans Siberian railway home after 20 months backpacking. As it was my girfriend and I were in Sust the last village before the Khunjerab Pass that links Pakistan with China and is the highest order crossing the world. It was a glorious spot with the towering Karakorams in the distance. Anyway the plan was set until we met this English bloke walking down the road to us. He’d just crossed over the border which had been shut and told us what had happened.

Remember this was BG (before google!) and before email even. News came via GPO Poste Restante and the travellers grapevine. So that was the end of that idea. It’s actually the closest I’ve ever been to China which is still on my list on places to visit.

But a lot has changed since that fateful day in Tiananmen Square and yet much has remained the same. The Chinese authorities began their media clampdown many months ago by suspending YouTube and more recently by blocking Twitter (what a compliment!) and Bing (Crosby??). As well as the usual quiet word in the ear of any one thinking about protesting or even acknowledging the anniversary.

So fear still rules. But fear of what exactly? Many Chinese are pretty happy with the way their economy has grown and how the modern world has been welcomed in. Sure not everyone has benefitted but there is a certain pride within the nation that much has been accomplished in recent times. Times like this are a real test for an authoritarian society. Dissent cannot be tolerated at any level.

But truth is a slippery ball and when one looks across to Hong Kong, where over 100,00 people gathered to mark the occasion, one can see that the attempt to censor and punish any kind of inquiry or examination is really a waste of time. People know.

China is a unique country with a long history and strong culture. Change comes slowly but hopefully those in charge will come to see the futility of repressing protest completely and censoring mass media. One thing though is for sure:

Tank Man is an enduring image of the 20th Century and no amount of propaganda or control can ever change that.

It’s been nearly 9 months since the $ started to show signs of meltdown fever. Except the meltdown was the rush to buy $ as a hedge against collapsing markets and disappearing credit lines.

In the last few months we have seen markets bottom and even recover some poise, aided and abetted by the action of nearly last resort, quantitative easing. There was nothing left in the toolbox really.

So far so good in some respects. The S+P has rallied 37% off its lows…….mind you its lows were 57% down from the highs and the index still stands 42% off the highs of the last few years. Not that the numbers really matter. The main news is that markets are functioning…still.

And the $ balloon has finally burst with QE signaling a chance to sell the $ without worrying what the equity markets were doing. The Kiwi$ has rallied 32% from its March low even outpacing the hammered Pound, up 21% from its low of $1.35.

Markets can do very strange things. Even whilst the $ was rallying to extreme highs against all currencies, no one really wanted to own it. Now people really really don’t want to own it.

This is all very well but this type of volatility is impossible to manage. How can any investment manager talk about average returns of 10% a year when markets are moving at this rate. How can any business hedge currency risk when currencies are moving like this.

The bigger problem for the US is trying to stop the snowball effect that may happen if markets really decide to dump the $. The noises coming from China may be regarded as monetary brinksmanship but with Russia, looking very wolflike these days, nibbling in behind, it’s becoming a more serious issue.

There’s a lot of politics involved in this but the positioning is clear: the US is weak not just economically but militarily. The exhausting foray into Iraq has stretched the US war machine as well as seriously impacting on its reputation. Historically the ability to create coin or currency was usually backed up by military power. One of the first actions by invading nations was to replace the local currency with its own.

This makes currency both a political and economic issue. So whilst there is unlikely to be any immediate change in the $ role as global reserve currency, there is no doubt that the dance of change is underway.

The short term problem for China is its huge ownership of US bonds and other paper. So they wouldn’t be happy with a complete collapse right now but it seems like less money will be staying in $ and more will be finding a new home whilst they work out how a new global currency system might operate.

But with GM falling apart and US unemployment rising to severe levels, concerns over the health of the $ will only continue to mount.

Not wanting to bve left out of the party, China announced a huge stimulus package over the weekend. $600bln or thereabouts is not be to sneezed at. The Chinese are taking no chances with collapsing global trade and economic activity. They have an large domestic economy and plenty of headroom to generate homegrown action.

They also have the money to do it.

As Yves notes the sums involved are getting to the point where a trillion doesn’t raise eyebrows. The Fed’s balance sheet is expanding quicker than a fast food muncher’s waistline. $2trln or will it be 3? Who knows? Who cares anymore? It’s like the end of a Monopoly game where the deals come thick and fast and the rent for landing on Mayfair (or Park Avenue) breaks your bank.

At the same time one continues to hear, in the background, that ecosystem stress is alive and well. As I noted last week there are some major concerns about the level of ecological debt. In a report by the WWF, called The Living Planet, they estimate some $4-5trln worth of ecological damage is occuring on an annual basis.

Deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, ecological breakdown and over population.

Your cash losing its value every day as the printing presses run wild.

Time for a pause and a lie down.

I mentioned Wokai briefly in the previous post but after closer examination they deserve the full monty. Developed by 2 smart ladies (Courtney McColgan and Casey Wilson) from the US who met studying advanced Chinese at Tsinghua University.

Wokai means “I start” in Chinese and represents the entreprenuerial spirit of microfinance. It looks an amazing undertaking. With over a sixth of the world’s population the potential for domestic economic activity is enormous.

With 300,000,000 living below the poverty line and the Rural Credit Bank only servicing 25% of demand, there is clearly a large market here for small, flexible lending which is the hallmark of microfinance.

It’s another exciting addition to the microfinance and P2P stable of companies. As long term readers will know I believe strongly that P2P financing will replace traditonal banking systems within 20 years.

Who knows it may be sooner with organisations like Wokai springing forth.

The recent rush for the $ has exposed a global currency crisis that seems to be gathering momentum.

So far we have seen Iceland bankrupted, South Korea facing a huge run on the Won, Argentina seizing private pensions, Hungary and Denmark raising rates and general deleveraging in emerging markets.

At the same time even the majors have taken a pounding. In the last 3 months against the $ the Euro has fallen 22%, the Pound 22%, the Aussie 38%, the Kiwi 29% and the Canadian 28%. The latter 3 suffering more because of their links to commodity markets which have also collapsed.Against the Yen just add another 10%.

Those falls are enormous.

The major factors here are:

- Credit issues.

- Current Account position.

- Commodities.

- Interest Rates.

If you have a large current account deficit and huge overseas borrowing (like Australia and New Zealand) then you will struggle given the problems with credit availability. At the same time lower currencies provide an opportunity to reduce those deficits. No more cheap imports for the Antipodeans.

This poses real problems for the US. Although the Yen is taking some of the slack with a major appreciation, a strong $ is hardly what the US are looking for at the moment given their huge current account problems. However we are entering into a situation where there are bigger issues at play.

A full scale unwind of the global currency net position would see surplus countries holding the upper hand. China with its vast $ reserves has plenty of options on the table. There is an interesting analysis on Naked Capitalism with some good links.

The most interesting proposal from Brad Setser at the CFR is for China (and other large $ holders) to diversify their $ holdings and buy assets from other deficit countries. Although its hard to see China doing this it makes sense as part of the eventual rebalancing of currencies and capital that must happen if we are not to see a huge race to the bottom in currency land.

This would help out the US in taking the heat over a resurgent $ and it would take the heat out of the impending meltdown of cross border capital flows. It may even help avert a potential meltdown in the Euro which grows closer by the day.

The era of running big deficits thanks to leveraged debt finance and derivative products is over. The November 15th War Council will certainly push to reform and regulate markets though that bolted years ago and the stable has burnt down.

Other suggestions proposed are:

- A return to a gold backed global currency. This is just fiat in a different form. It has some merit as a stable, hard store of value in which supply is reasonably easy to manage but it has already failed several times in recent memory.

- A commodity/energy back currency. The EBCU proposal by Richard Douthwaite still is a favourite of mine because it links natural resources, climate change and money together. It’s real unlike gold as it connects energy to money and energy is what we are concerned with, in terms of transforming it and using it in our daily lives.

Hopefully all of these approaches will be on the table when our financial “wizards” meet shortly.

In the meantime it will be a case of holding one’s breath and hoping for the best with possible intervention ahead.

At worst expect markets to close and capital controls to be applied.