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Archive for August, 2007

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Freedom to be

Monday, August 6th, 2007

We’ve just finished Freedom Week here in New Zealand, a campaign run by Amnesty International to raise money and awareness. Also MyAmnesty has been launched. Get online and participate.

Some 130 collectors braved the southerly on Friday to collect in Christchurch (yes i was one of them) so well done to all those and to those who donated and stopped for a chat.

Without basic freedom we have nothing. Freedom to be, to think, to speak, write, draw or blog!

Whatever your political persuasion it is hard to to look away from the constant abuses of personal security whether for reasons of censorship or war. It’s all the same.

We can’t have a functioning economy without personal security. We can’t have functioning communities without personal security and we most certainly cannot have a decent environment without personal security.

We wouldn’t be sitting here in the blogosphere expounding our thoughts and views on whatever we fancied.

We should be grateful for the life we have here in New Zealand. It’s pretty good.

Tags: amnesty, censorship, freedom, giving, gratitude, human rights, repression | 2 Comments »

Volatile Markets – par for the course

Sunday, August 5th, 2007

It’s been an interesting week or so since the RBNZ lifted interest rates t0 a wallet popping 8.25%. The Kiwi peaked above 81cts in a nice blow off move and post rate hike and carefully worded statement it has retraced as far at 75.5cts with the Yen cross taking a battering from 97.50 to 88.50. So much for safe carry trades.

The South Korean Finance Minister made some loud noises about the carry trade implications for the Won which was a bit firm for comfort.

Look really this is just a big game. And in all games there are winners and losers. As we see domestically in NZ with the collapse of yet another finance company, its usually the average risk averse investor who takes a cold bath.

Belgian dentists and Japanese housewives watch out!

All this because irresponsible and incompetent central bankers mismanage the global monetary system.

Leveraged money is like water….it will run down until it finds a place that can hold it. Anything that looks remotely fixed will attract attention..exchange rates, interest rates etc.

In a way speculators act in harmony with natural systems. Our world is in constant flux and it is normal for systems to move as new information is incorporated. Nowhere is this more obvious than the global currency markets…each breath of news is immediately received into the price no matter how minute.

So as soon as Alan Bollard said this is enough for now, then all bets were off and the market responded accordingly. Throw in the sub-prime meltdown in the US and it turned into a rout which could continue further. As i noted previously the Kiwi was at a level worth selling and could fall much further especially if the crosses get unwound.

We shouldn’t be overly concerned because we know the system is built to generate these crises every few years. According to Fred Harrison its every 18 years for the big bust  but currency debacles happen more regularly than that…..Asia, South America, Euro land, Russia…its par for the course.

So don’t be too alarmed. Just remember what Newton said…..whats goes up always comes down….eventually.

Tags: carry trade, central banks, currencies, federal reserve, forex, hedge funds, interest, markets, reserve bank of new zealand | No Comments »

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    I’m a Londoner who moved to Christchurch, New Zealand in 2002. After studying economics and finance at Manchester University and a couple of years of backpacking, I ended up working in the financial markets in London. I traded the global financial markets on behalf of investment banks for 11 years. I write about the intersection of economic, social and environmental issues . My prime interest is in designing better systems to create a better world. I welcome comments and input.

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